Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-1445u
ROI
-3.7%
win rate
47%
bets
2448
drawdown
135%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
2% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-598u
period 3top-up-124u
period 2top-up-616u
period 1top-up-107u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 732 | 49% | +735 | +2.6% | 71.8% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 2448 | 47% | -759 | -3.5% | 82.6% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 2448 | 47% | -794 | -3.2% | 90.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2448 | 47% | -1445 | -3.7% | 135% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2448 | 47% | -2997 | -4.5% | 207.9% | Selected |
| 10% of bankroll | 2448 | 47% | -3920 | -5.7% | 259.3% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2448, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – ENCE | Lavked | 1.96 | 8 | lost | -8 | -445 |
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | LPH | 2.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -437 |
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | mellren | 2.46 | 8 | won | +12 | -429 |
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | Vitality | 2.15 | 8 | won | +9 | -441 |
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | B8 | 2.37 | 8 | lost | -8 | -450 |
| 20.08.26 | Metizport – Color | Metizport | 1.92 | 8 | won | +7 | -442 |
| 20.08.26 | OG – SPARTA | SPARTA | 2.02 | 8 | lost | -8 | -449 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | benched gods | 2.02 | 8 | won | +8 | -441 |
| 20.08.26 | Honvéd – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 2.17 | 8 | lost | -8 | -449 |
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | Lavked | 1.95 | 8 | lost | -8 | -441 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Legacy | 1.90 | 8 | won | +7 | -433 |
| 20.08.26 | Falcons – The MongolZ | The MongolZ | 2.49 | 8 | lost | -8 | -440 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.96 | 8 | won | +8 | -432 |
| 20.08.26 | G2 Ares – Bebop | Bebop | 1.98 | 8 | lost | -8 | -439 |
| 20.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Raccoons | Raccoons | 2.35 | 8 | lost | -8 | -431 |
| 19.08.26 | GamerLegion – MOUZ | GamerLegion | 2.41 | 9 | lost | -9 | -423 |
| 19.08.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 2.02 | 8 | won | +9 | -414 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 1.98 | 8 | won | +8 | -423 |
| 19.08.26 | Honvéd – Bushido Wildcats | Honvéd | 2.81 | 8 | won | +15 | -431 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | The Last Resort | 1.98 | 8 | lost | -8 | -445 |
| 19.08.26 | PCIFIC – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.99 | 8 | won | +8 | -437 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Metizport | 1.92 | 8 | won | +7 | -445 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | Color | 2.01 | 8 | won | +8 | -452 |
| 19.08.26 | Drip Too Hard – HYPERSPIRIT | Drip Too Hard | 2.16 | 8 | lost | -8 | -460 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | FUT | 1.98 | 8 | won | +8 | -452 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | Astralis | 2.06 | 8 | lost | -8 | -460 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Bushido Wildcats | Black Phoenix | 2.78 | 8 | won | +14 | -452 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.17 | 7 | won | +9 | -465 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – EAC | Permitta | 2.09 | 8 | lost | -8 | -474 |
| 19.08.26 | Lavked – Revise | Lavked | 2.17 | 7 | won | +9 | -467 |
| 19.08.26 | Noir Verse – ENCE | Noir Verse | 2.20 | 7 | won | +9 | -475 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – The Last Resort | Misa | 2.19 | 7 | lost | -7 | -484 |
| 19.08.26 | Mai Tai – Honvéd | Mai Tai | 2.57 | 8 | lost | -8 | -477 |
| 19.08.26 | Entropy – Fire Flux | Entropy | 2.16 | 8 | lost | -8 | -469 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | MOUZ NXT | 2.05 | 8 | lost | -8 | -461 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Raccoons | 1.95 | 8 | won | +7 | -453 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – ex-Sashi Academy | Misa | 1.98 | 8 | lost | -8 | -461 |
| 19.08.26 | SAW Youngsters – ex-MANA | SAW Youngsters | 1.92 | 8 | won | +7 | -453 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | Permitta | 2.01 | 8 | lost | -8 | -460 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 Ares – ex-Zero Tenacity | G2 Ares | 2.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -452 |
| 19.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | UNiTY | 2.54 | 8 | lost | -8 | -444 |
| 19.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Endless Journey | Endless Journey | 2.73 | 8 | lost | -8 | -436 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.93 | 9 | lost | -9 | -427 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Misa | 2.09 | 8 | won | +9 | -419 |
| 18.08.26 | Lavked – HAVU | HAVU | 1.94 | 8 | won | +8 | -428 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | OG | 2.06 | 8 | won | +9 | -436 |
| 18.08.26 | DONSTU – MOUZ NXT | DONSTU | 2.02 | 8 | lost | -8 | -444 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – SPARTA | Metizport | 1.90 | 8 | won | +7 | -436 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – The Last Resort | Color | 1.91 | 8 | won | +7 | -443 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Entropy | Entropy | 2.68 | 8 | won | +13 | -451 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.97 | 8 | lost | -8 | -463 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – Permitta | Fortress | 2.43 | 8 | lost | -8 | -456 |
| 18.08.26 | Fire Flux – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.96 | 8 | won | +8 | -448 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | Entropy | 2.11 | 8 | lost | -8 | -455 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | Leo | 2.01 | 8 | lost | -8 | -447 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexar | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.01 | 8 | won | +8 | -439 |
| 18.08.26 | WBT – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 3.07 | 8 | lost | -8 | -447 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Misa | 3.50 | 8 | lost | -8 | -439 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – Misa | Misa | 2.06 | 9 | lost | -9 | -431 |
| 18.08.26 | Permitta – OG | OG | 1.94 | 8 | won | +8 | -422 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.