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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-460u
ROI
-3.3%
win rate
45%
bets
1375
drawdown
47.6%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-121u
period 6top-up-152u
period 5profit withdrawn+77u
period 4profit withdrawn+4u
period 3top-up-178u
period 2top-up-18u
period 1top-up-72u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Flat (10 units)137545%-460-3.3%47.6%Select
1% of bankroll137545%-496-3.7%51.1%Select
Martingale8443%-830-28%86.6%Select
2% of bankroll137545%-1050-4.1%104.7%Select
5% of bankroll137545%-2845-5.4%262%Select
10% of bankroll137545%-5323-7.6%449.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1375, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26BET-M – FORZE ReloadBET-M2.1310lost-10540
14.10.26fnatic – SashiSashi2.9810lost-10550
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.5710lost-10560
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticfnatic1.9310lost-10570
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.9010lost-10580
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.0110lost-10590
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.2910won+13600
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1110lost-10587
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.0410won+10597
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.9910lost-10587
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.9910lost-10597
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.9610lost-10607
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarDETONATE2.1810lost-10617
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.6110lost-10627
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1210won+21637
11.10.26XI – ASTRALXI2.2010won+12616
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9710lost-10604
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4510won+14614
11.10.26benched gods – IllyriansIllyrians1.9210won+9599
11.10.26Galorys – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.8410lost-10590
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.3710lost-10600
10.10.26Wildcard – Last Dance USLast Dance US2.1310lost-10610
10.10.26Bebop – 6666Bebop2.0910lost-10620
10.10.26Lavked – FortressFortress2.4510lost-10630
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakMindfreak2.5110lost-10640
10.10.26FlyQuest – madlikewizardsmadlikewizards2.7010lost-10650
10.10.26Ground Zero – KZGKZG2.3810lost-10660
10.10.26Club 333 – DETONATEDETONATE2.0110won+10670
10.10.26Galorys – Turma do PagodeGalorys1.9010won+9660
10.10.26Grêmio – BORRACHEIROSGrêmio1.9810lost-10651
09.10.26Falcons – SpiritFalcons2.2910lost-10661
09.10.26Iberian Soul – Noir VerseNoir Verse1.9310lost-10671
09.10.26FURIA – MOUZFURIA2.3410lost-10681
09.10.26Acend – NexusAcend2.0110lost-10691
09.10.26Vitalem Aerem – Rare AtomVitalem Aerem2.4810won+15701
09.10.26GamerLegion – SINNERSGamerLegion2.2410won+12686
09.10.26HOTU – AcendAcend2.7010lost-10674
09.10.26mellren – BebopBebop3.0810won+21684
09.10.26Black Phoenix – LeoLeo2.0510lost-10663
09.10.26Zomblers – Desi BoyzZomblers1.8910won+9673
09.10.26Procyon – BESTIA AcademyProcyon1.8910won+9664
09.10.26Bounty Hunters – ALKAALKA1.9610lost-10655
08.10.26INFINITE – G2 AresG2 Ares1.9910won+10665
08.10.26FaZe – SangalFaZe2.5810won+16655
08.10.26MOUZ NXT – HYPERSPIRITMOUZ NXT1.9510won+10639
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEPRIVATE2.0710won+11630
08.10.26Azuolas – MisaAzuolas2.4310lost-10619
08.10.26megoshort – Fire Fluxmegoshort2.5610lost-10629
08.10.26Lynn Vision – Chinggis WarriorsLynn Vision1.9110won+9639
08.10.26Alter Ego – KaleidoKaleido2.2010won+12630
08.10.26The Last Resort – PrivateerPrivateer2.8110won+18618
08.10.26HYPERSPIRIT – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya1.9710lost-10600
08.10.26Enjoy – 666666662.5010won+15610
08.10.26G2 Ares – RBLSG2 Ares2.0510won+10595
08.10.26Banda Chuya – IllyriansBanda Chuya2.1910lost-10585
08.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ColorNuclear TigeRES2.0210won+10595
08.10.26Villainous – FarmVilleVillainous2.0610lost-10584
08.10.26BESTIA Academy – ALKAALKA1.9010won+9594
08.10.26Isurus – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.0710lost-10585
08.10.26Galorys – GrêmioGrêmio2.9410won+19595
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.