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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-5547u
ROI
-10.1%
win rate
44%
bets
1373
drawdown
441.3%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-422u
period 6top-up-984u
period 5top-up-784u
period 4top-up-870u
period 3top-up-949u
period 2top-up-992u
period 1top-up-546u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale8442%-790-24%83.6%Select
1% of bankroll137344%-864-6.8%91.7%Select
Flat (10 units)137344%-895-6.5%95.4%Select
2% of bankroll137344%-1661-7.1%168.6%Select
5% of bankroll137344%-3604-8.1%325.9%Select
10% of bankroll137344%-5547-10.1%441.3%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1373, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.5764lost-64-4547
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticfnatic1.9371lost-71-4483
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.0565won+68-4412
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.0172lost-72-4480
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.2964won+82-4408
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1171lost-71-4490
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.0464won+66-4419
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.9971lost-71-4485
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.4579lost-79-4414
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.9688lost-88-4335
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.9680won+77-4248
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBORRACHEIROS2.0989lost-89-4325
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1273won+155-4236
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.6482lost-82-4391
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9791lost-91-4310
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4579won+115-4219
11.10.26benched gods – IllyriansIllyrians1.9272won+67-4334
11.10.26Galorys – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.8480lost-80-4400
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.3789lost-89-4320
10.10.26Wildcard – Last Dance USLast Dance US2.1399lost-99-4230
10.10.26Bebop – 6666Bebop2.09110lost-110-4131
10.10.26WBT Academy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners2.1099won+109-4021
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakMindfreak2.51111lost-111-4130
10.10.26FlyQuest – madlikewizardsmadlikewizards2.70123lost-123-4019
10.10.26Club 333 – DETONATEDETONATE2.01112won+113-3896
10.10.26regain – VillainousVillainous2.26124lost-124-4009
10.10.26Grêmio – BORRACHEIROSGrêmio1.98138lost-138-3885
10.10.26ALKA – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.27122won+155-3748
09.10.26Falcons – SpiritFalcons2.29136lost-136-3903
09.10.26MOUZ NXT – LeoMOUZ NXT2.61117won+189-3767
09.10.26FURIA – MOUZFURIA2.34130lost-130-3955
09.10.26Misa – 666666662.07117won+125-3825
09.10.26BORING PLAYERS – Chinggis WarriorsBORING PLAYERS2.13130lost-130-3951
09.10.26GamerLegion – SINNERSGamerLegion2.24116won+144-3820
09.10.26HOTU – AcendAcend2.70129lost-129-3964
09.10.26Azuolas – EnjoyAzuolas2.89108won+205-3835
09.10.26Black Phoenix – LeoLeo2.05120lost-120-4041
09.10.26New Legends – Wanted GoonsWanted Goons2.35106won+143-3920
09.10.26LP – Turma do PagodeLP2.2994won+121-4063
09.10.26Bounty Hunters – ALKAALKA1.96104lost-104-4185
08.10.26INFINITE – G2 AresG2 Ares1.9995won+94-4080
08.10.26Leo – PrivateerPrivateer3.78106lost-106-4174
08.10.26SINNERS – Black PhoenixSINNERS1.97117lost-117-4069
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEPRIVATE2.07106won+113-3951
08.10.26Azuolas – MisaAzuolas2.43118lost-118-4065
08.10.26megoshort – Fire Fluxmegoshort2.56131lost-131-3947
08.10.26Alter Ego – KaleidoKaleido2.20117won+140-3816
08.10.26Rare Atom – Just SwingJust Swing2.37103won+141-3956
08.10.26Lynn Vision – Chinggis WarriorsLynn Vision1.9194won+86-4097
08.10.26The Last Resort – PrivateerPrivateer2.8180won+144-4183
08.10.26Enjoy – 666666662.5069won+104-4327
08.10.26OG – SangalOG2.2477lost-77-4431
08.10.26Lavked – FortressFortress2.5186lost-86-4354
08.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ColorNuclear TigeRES2.0278won+79-4269
08.10.26Wanted Goons – Iowa StormboarWanted Goons2.9386lost-86-4348
08.10.26METANOIA Wolves – LPMETANOIA Wolves3.1396lost-96-4262
08.10.26Turma do Pagode – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.69107lost-107-4166
08.10.26BESTIA Academy – ALKAALKA1.9098won+88-4059
07.10.26Famalicão – Lazer CatsFamalicão2.55109lost-109-4148
07.10.26Sangal – SAWSAW2.09121lost-121-4039
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.