Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-899u
ROI
-1.7%
win rate
58%
bets
545
drawdown
124.9%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
10% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+486u
period 6top-up-470u
period 5top-up-847u
period 4top-up-198u
period 3top-up-600u
period 2profit withdrawn+828u
period 1top-up-100u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 545 | 58% | +786 | +6.4% | 42.1% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 545 | 58% | -73 | -1.3% | 23.7% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 545 | 58% | -74 | -1.4% | 24% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 545 | 58% | -146 | -1.3% | 42.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 545 | 58% | -376 | -1.4% | 82% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 545 | 58% | -899 | -1.7% | 124.9% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 545, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | BET-M – FORZE Reload | FORZE Reload | 1.69 | 139 | won | +96 | 101 |
| 14.10.26 | fnatic – Sashi | fnatic | 1.38 | 134 | won | +51 | 4 |
| 14.10.26 | Enjoy – B8 Academy | Enjoy | 1.87 | 123 | won | +107 | -47 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | UPGRADE | 1.71 | 115 | won | +81 | -154 |
| 13.10.26 | 100 Thieves – JiJieHao | 100 Thieves | 1.80 | 107 | won | +85 | -235 |
| 12.10.26 | Inner Circle – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.79 | 99 | won | +78 | -320 |
| 12.10.26 | Yawara – Galorys | Galorys | 1.48 | 94 | won | +45 | -398 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | Imperial | 1.35 | 105 | lost | -105 | -443 |
| 11.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Just Players | Nuclear TigeRES | 1.81 | 97 | won | +78 | -339 |
| 11.10.26 | benched gods – Illyrians | benched gods | 1.86 | 108 | lost | -108 | -417 |
| 10.10.26 | Lavked – Fortress | Lavked | 1.53 | 102 | won | +55 | -309 |
| 10.10.26 | Ground Zero – KZG | Ground Zero | 1.56 | 97 | won | +54 | -364 |
| 10.10.26 | Grêmio – BORRACHEIROS | BORRACHEIROS | 1.80 | 90 | won | +72 | -418 |
| 09.10.26 | Acend – Nexus | Nexus | 1.78 | 83 | won | +65 | -490 |
| 09.10.26 | mellren – Bebop | mellren | 1.36 | 92 | lost | -92 | -554 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Black Phoenix | 1.75 | 86 | won | +64 | -462 |
| 09.10.26 | Zomblers – Desi Boyz | Desi Boyz | 1.88 | 96 | lost | -96 | -526 |
| 08.10.26 | FaZe – Sangal | Sangal | 1.49 | 106 | lost | -106 | -431 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | Betclic | 1.73 | 118 | lost | -118 | -325 |
| 08.10.26 | megoshort – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.49 | 112 | won | +55 | -207 |
| 08.10.26 | Lynn Vision – Chinggis Warriors | Chinggis Warriors | 1.86 | 125 | lost | -125 | -262 |
| 08.10.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Banda Chuya | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.81 | 115 | won | +94 | -137 |
| 08.10.26 | Galorys – Grêmio | Galorys | 1.39 | 128 | lost | -128 | -231 |
| 07.10.26 | Sangal – NAVI Junior | Sangal | 1.42 | 143 | lost | -143 | -103 |
| 07.10.26 | RBLS – Famalicão | RBLS | 1.55 | 135 | won | +75 | 40 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.56 | 150 | lost | -150 | -35 |
| 07.10.26 | Ryvex – mellren | mellren | 1.50 | 143 | won | +72 | 115 |
| 07.10.26 | Leo – Ryvex | Leo | 1.57 | 135 | won | +78 | 43 |
| 07.10.26 | Falcons Force – Orion Wanderers | Falcons Force | 1.71 | 126 | won | +89 | -34 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – Falcons Force | OG | 1.56 | 140 | lost | -140 | -124 |
| 07.10.26 | PURE – SINQU | PURE | 1.53 | 133 | won | +71 | 17 |
| 07.10.26 | Gothic – LPH | LPH | 1.60 | 148 | lost | -148 | -54 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | Aurora | 1.81 | 137 | won | +111 | 94 |
| 06.10.26 | G2 – PARIVISION | G2 | 1.52 | 152 | lost | -152 | -18 |
| 05.10.26 | ShindeN – G2 | G2 | 1.85 | 140 | won | +119 | 135 |
| 03.10.26 | NT – Lazer Cats | Lazer Cats | 1.68 | 156 | lost | -156 | 16 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | LAG | 1.55 | 148 | won | +81 | 172 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Nemiga | 1.30 | 143 | won | +43 | 90 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Johnny Speeds | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.62 | 135 | won | +84 | 48 |
| 02.10.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Glitch | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.68 | 126 | won | +86 | -36 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | SportsBetExpert | 1.32 | 122 | won | +39 | -122 |
| 02.10.26 | Bounty Hunters – MEIA NOITE | Bounty Hunters | 1.64 | 115 | won | +73 | -162 |
| 02.10.26 | Voca – Sashi | Voca | 1.61 | 108 | won | +67 | -235 |
| 02.10.26 | UNiTY – aimclub | UNiTY | 1.76 | 101 | won | +76 | -301 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Sangal | Sangal | 1.72 | 94 | won | +68 | -378 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | FaZe | 1.84 | 105 | lost | -105 | -445 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | NEXVOID | 1.54 | 99 | won | +53 | -341 |
| 01.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – CYBERSHOKE | Nuclear TigeRES | 1.68 | 93 | won | +63 | -394 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.45 | 103 | lost | -103 | -457 |
| 01.10.26 | Lavked – HYPERSPIRIT | Lavked | 1.81 | 95 | won | +77 | -354 |
| 01.10.26 | SINQU – Famalicão | SINQU | 1.84 | 106 | lost | -106 | -432 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | Mira | 1.60 | 100 | won | +60 | -326 |
| 30.09.26 | PRIVATE – Nuclear TigeRES | Nuclear TigeRES | 1.48 | 51 | won | +25 | -386 |
| 29.09.26 | MAYBE – Illyrians | Illyrians | 1.55 | 56 | lost | -56 | -410 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | WW | 1.63 | 62 | lost | -62 | -354 |
| 29.09.26 | Rune Eaters – DNK | Rune Eaters | 1.67 | 59 | won | +39 | -292 |
| 28.09.26 | Leo – Noir Verse | Leo | 1.64 | 65 | lost | -65 | -331 |
| 28.09.26 | regain – LAG | LAG | 1.64 | 61 | won | +39 | -266 |
| 28.09.26 | Marsborne – FarmVille | Marsborne | 1.41 | 59 | won | +24 | -305 |
| 28.09.26 | Galorys – Procyon | Galorys | 1.43 | 65 | lost | -65 | -330 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.