Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-3987u
ROI
-5.9%
win rate
53%
bets
2450
drawdown
260.2%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-995u
period 3top-up-1000u
period 2top-up-992u
period 1top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Martingale | 86 | 47% | -1000 | -28.4% | 100% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 2450 | 53% | -1490 | -7.5% | 151.6% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 2450 | 53% | -1841 | -7.5% | 188.1% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2450 | 53% | -2445 | -7.5% | 245.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2450 | 53% | -3668 | -7.2% | 356.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2450 | 53% | -3987 | -5.9% | 260.2% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2450, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – ENCE | ENCE | 1.82 | 0 | won | +0 | -2987 |
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | WBT | 1.79 | 0 | won | +0 | -2987 |
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.53 | 0 | lost | -0 | -2987 |
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | FaZe | 1.68 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2987 |
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | Spirit | 1.57 | 1 | won | +0 | -2986 |
| 20.08.26 | OG – SPARTA | OG | 1.77 | 0 | won | +0 | -2987 |
| 20.08.26 | Metizport – Color | Color | 1.85 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2987 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.77 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2986 |
| 20.08.26 | Honvéd – SAW Youngsters | Honvéd | 1.67 | 1 | won | +0 | -2986 |
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | UNiTY | 1.82 | 1 | won | +0 | -2986 |
| 20.08.26 | Falcons – The MongolZ | Falcons | 1.52 | 0 | won | +0 | -2987 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Natus Vincere | 1.87 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2987 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.82 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2986 |
| 20.08.26 | G2 Ares – Bebop | G2 Ares | 1.80 | 1 | won | +0 | -2986 |
| 20.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Raccoons | Bushido Wildcats | 1.57 | 1 | won | +0 | -2986 |
| 19.08.26 | GamerLegion – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.55 | 0 | won | +0 | -2986 |
| 19.08.26 | FURIA – Aurora | Aurora | 1.77 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2987 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | OG | 1.80 | 1 | won | +0 | -2986 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Permitta | 1.80 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2987 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | EAC | 1.78 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2986 |
| 19.08.26 | Drip Too Hard – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.68 | 1 | won | +0 | -2985 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.85 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2986 |
| 19.08.26 | PCIFIC – SPARTA | PCIFIC | 1.80 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2985 |
| 19.08.26 | Honvéd – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.42 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2984 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | magic | 1.80 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2984 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | G2 | 1.74 | 1 | won | +1 | -2983 |
| 19.08.26 | Lavked – Revise | Revise | 1.67 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2983 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.43 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2982 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Enjoy | 1.67 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2981 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – EAC | EAC | 1.72 | 1 | won | +1 | -2980 |
| 19.08.26 | Noir Verse – ENCE | ENCE | 1.65 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2981 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.66 | 1 | won | +1 | -2980 |
| 19.08.26 | Mai Tai – Honvéd | Honvéd | 1.49 | 1 | won | +1 | -2981 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.75 | 1 | won | +1 | -2981 |
| 19.08.26 | Entropy – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.68 | 1 | won | +1 | -2982 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Black Phoenix | 1.83 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2982 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.80 | 1 | won | +1 | -2981 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.78 | 1 | won | +1 | -2982 |
| 19.08.26 | SAW Youngsters – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 1.86 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2983 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 Ares – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.78 | 1 | won | +1 | -2982 |
| 19.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Endless Journey | Bushido Wildcats | 1.44 | 1 | won | +0 | -2983 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | Inner Circle Academy | 1.85 | 1 | won | +1 | -2983 |
| 19.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | GenOne | 1.50 | 1 | won | +0 | -2984 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Strael Bora | 1.72 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2984 |
| 18.08.26 | Lavked – HAVU | Lavked | 1.84 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2983 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.86 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2982 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Entropy | Omega | 1.46 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2981 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Honvéd | 1.81 | 1 | won | +1 | -2980 |
| 18.08.26 | Fire Flux – PCIFIC | Fire Flux | 1.82 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2981 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.87 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2980 |
| 18.08.26 | DONSTU – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.77 | 1 | won | +1 | -2978 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | EAC | 1.74 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2979 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – Permitta | Permitta | 1.54 | 1 | won | +1 | -2978 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.71 | 1 | won | +1 | -2979 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.78 | 1 | won | +1 | -2980 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexar | Vexar | 1.78 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2980 |
| 18.08.26 | WBT – Mai Tai | WBT | 1.36 | 1 | won | +0 | -2979 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Bushido Wildcats | 1.29 | 1 | won | +0 | -2980 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – Misa | Color | 1.74 | 1 | won | +1 | -2980 |
| 18.08.26 | Permitta – OG | Permitta | 1.84 | 1 | lost | -1 | -2981 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.