Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-2862u
ROI
-5.6%
win rate
56%
bets
1373
drawdown
226.6%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
5% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-332u
period 6top-up-788u
period 5top-up-813u
period 4top-up-199u
period 3top-up-309u
period 2top-up-558u
period 1profit withdrawn+136u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 1373 | 56% | +1180 | +3.5% | 37.5% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1373 | 56% | -697 | -5.4% | 74.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1373 | 56% | -731 | -5.3% | 77.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1373 | 56% | -1329 | -5.5% | 129.3% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1373 | 56% | -2862 | -5.6% | 226.6% | Selected |
| 10% of bankroll | 1373 | 56% | -4519 | -5.6% | 291.7% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1373, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Banda Chuya – 6666 | 6666 | 1.49 | 33 | won | +16 | -1862 |
| 14.10.26 | Astralis – Sashi | Astralis | 1.55 | 32 | won | +17 | -1878 |
| 14.10.26 | GenOne – 6666 | GenOne | 1.55 | 33 | lost | -33 | -1895 |
| 13.10.26 | Grêmio – LOS NINOS | LOS NINOS | 1.78 | 32 | won | +25 | -1862 |
| 13.10.26 | GenOne – Butterfly | GenOne | 1.60 | 34 | lost | -34 | -1887 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | UPGRADE | 1.71 | 33 | won | +23 | -1853 |
| 13.10.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Illyrians | Bushido Wildcats | 1.76 | 34 | lost | -34 | -1876 |
| 13.10.26 | 100 Thieves – JiJieHao | 100 Thieves | 1.80 | 33 | won | +26 | -1842 |
| 12.10.26 | Sangal – Betclic | Sangal | 1.53 | 32 | won | +17 | -1868 |
| 12.10.26 | Enjoy – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 1.82 | 31 | won | +25 | -1885 |
| 12.10.26 | Overtake Sector – regain | regain | 1.82 | 33 | lost | -33 | -1911 |
| 12.10.26 | Yawara – Galorys | Galorys | 1.48 | 32 | won | +15 | -1878 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | Imperial | 1.35 | 34 | lost | -34 | -1893 |
| 11.10.26 | antidaun – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 1.81 | 32 | won | +26 | -1860 |
| 11.10.26 | acidhouze – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 1.53 | 34 | lost | -34 | -1886 |
| 11.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Just Players | Nuclear TigeRES | 1.81 | 33 | won | +26 | -1852 |
| 11.10.26 | benched gods – Illyrians | benched gods | 1.86 | 34 | lost | -34 | -1878 |
| 11.10.26 | ex-Keyd Stars – Yawara | Yawara | 1.82 | 36 | lost | -36 | -1844 |
| 10.10.26 | Without a Roof – Last Dance US | Without a Roof | 1.31 | 36 | won | +11 | -1808 |
| 10.10.26 | NRG – Unreal Nightmare | NRG | 1.52 | 35 | won | +18 | -1819 |
| 10.10.26 | Bebop – 6666 | 6666 | 1.72 | 33 | won | +24 | -1837 |
| 10.10.26 | Abyssal – Mindfreak | Abyssal | 1.51 | 33 | won | +17 | -1861 |
| 10.10.26 | WBT Academy – Saint Sinners | WBT Academy | 1.72 | 34 | lost | -34 | -1878 |
| 10.10.26 | FlyQuest – madlikewizards | FlyQuest | 1.45 | 34 | won | +15 | -1843 |
| 10.10.26 | FarmVille – Wanted Goons | FarmVille | 1.47 | 35 | lost | -35 | -1859 |
| 10.10.26 | Club 333 – DETONATE | Club 333 | 1.78 | 37 | lost | -37 | -1823 |
| 10.10.26 | ALKA – MEIA NOITE | ALKA | 1.62 | 39 | lost | -39 | -1786 |
| 10.10.26 | Isurus – Procyon | Procyon | 1.73 | 38 | won | +27 | -1747 |
| 09.10.26 | Falcons – Spirit | Spirit | 1.60 | 37 | won | +22 | -1774 |
| 09.10.26 | Iberian Soul – Noir Verse | Iberian Soul | 1.84 | 35 | won | +30 | -1796 |
| 09.10.26 | FURIA – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.58 | 34 | won | +20 | -1826 |
| 09.10.26 | Misa – 6666 | Misa | 1.73 | 36 | lost | -36 | -1846 |
| 09.10.26 | The Huns – Alter Ego | Alter Ego | 1.77 | 35 | won | +27 | -1810 |
| 09.10.26 | GamerLegion – SINNERS | SINNERS | 1.63 | 37 | lost | -37 | -1837 |
| 09.10.26 | HOTU – Acend | HOTU | 1.45 | 36 | won | +16 | -1800 |
| 09.10.26 | mellren – Bebop | mellren | 1.36 | 38 | lost | -38 | -1816 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Black Phoenix | 1.75 | 36 | won | +27 | -1779 |
| 09.10.26 | Villainous – Reign Above | Reign Above | 1.65 | 38 | lost | -38 | -1806 |
| 09.10.26 | LP – Turma do Pagode | Turma do Pagode | 1.60 | 40 | lost | -40 | -1768 |
| 09.10.26 | Bounty Hunters – ALKA | Bounty Hunters | 1.82 | 39 | won | +32 | -1727 |
| 08.10.26 | INFINITE – G2 Ares | INFINITE | 1.79 | 41 | lost | -41 | -1759 |
| 08.10.26 | Saint Sinners – mellren | mellren | 1.50 | 43 | lost | -43 | -1718 |
| 08.10.26 | FaZe – Sangal | Sangal | 1.49 | 45 | lost | -45 | -1676 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | Betclic | 1.73 | 47 | lost | -47 | -1631 |
| 08.10.26 | Azuolas – Misa | Misa | 1.54 | 46 | won | +25 | -1583 |
| 08.10.26 | EAC – PURE | PURE | 1.70 | 45 | won | +31 | -1608 |
| 08.10.26 | Lynn Vision – Chinggis Warriors | Chinggis Warriors | 1.86 | 47 | lost | -47 | -1640 |
| 08.10.26 | bLight blue – BORING PLAYERS | BORING PLAYERS | 1.84 | 45 | won | +38 | -1593 |
| 08.10.26 | THE UNIT – The KnockoutX | The KnockoutX | 1.82 | 43 | won | +36 | -1630 |
| 08.10.26 | ENCE – LFO 10 | ENCE | 1.66 | 42 | won | +27 | -1666 |
| 08.10.26 | Azuolas – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.50 | 41 | won | +21 | -1693 |
| 08.10.26 | OG – Sangal | Sangal | 1.63 | 40 | won | +25 | -1714 |
| 08.10.26 | Lavked – Fortress | Lavked | 1.51 | 39 | won | +20 | -1739 |
| 08.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Color | Color | 1.77 | 41 | lost | -41 | -1759 |
| 08.10.26 | Villainous – FarmVille | FarmVille | 1.74 | 39 | won | +29 | -1718 |
| 08.10.26 | BESTIA Academy – ALKA | BESTIA Academy | 1.87 | 41 | lost | -41 | -1747 |
| 08.10.26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA – ex-Keyd Stars | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.75 | 43 | lost | -43 | -1706 |
| 08.10.26 | Isurus – MEIA NOITE | Isurus | 1.73 | 42 | won | +31 | -1662 |
| 07.10.26 | Sangal – NAVI Junior | Sangal | 1.42 | 44 | lost | -44 | -1693 |
| 07.10.26 | Lazer Cats – NAVI Junior | Lazer Cats | 1.73 | 46 | lost | -46 | -1649 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.