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Model favorite (Elo)

CSCS25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-5579u
ROI
-4%
win rate
57%
bets
5546
drawdown
566.6%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

5% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-560u
period 6top-up-918u
period 5top-up-967u
period 4top-up-981u
period 3top-up-920u
period 2top-up-814u
period 1top-up-418u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale47453%-669-4.6%81%Select
1% of bankroll554657%-1841-3.9%189.8%Select
Flat (10 units)554657%-2098-3.8%220.8%Select
2% of bankroll554657%-3236-3.9%330%Select
5% of bankroll554657%-5579-4%566.6%Select
10% of bankroll554657%-6709-3.9%352.5%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 5546, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Astralis – SashiAstralis1.5521won+12-4579
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterRooster1.6621won+14-4590
14.10.269z – AuroraAurora1.4622lost-22-4604
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyEnjoy1.8721won+18-4582
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedGothic1.7422lost-22-4600
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorOvertake Sector1.6521won+14-4578
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANSUKEBAN1.7222lost-22-4592
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – GalorysGalorys1.4322won+9-4570
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSLOS NINOS1.7821won+17-4579
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyGenOne1.6022lost-22-4596
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaUPGRADE1.7122won+15-4573
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 6666Black Phoenix1.4021won+8-4589
13.10.26Liquid – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.8522lost-22-4597
13.10.26Walczaki – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.5322won+12-4575
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLJiJieHao1.6721won+14-4586
13.10.26100 Thieves – Liquid100 Thieves1.7620won+15-4600
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansQUINTESSÊNCIA1.8719won+17-4616
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoAlter Ego1.6019won+11-4632
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansBushido Wildcats1.7620lost-20-4644
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHao100 Thieves1.8019won+15-4624
13.10.26Liquid – BBLLiquid1.7018won+13-4639
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterRooster1.7118won+13-4652
13.10.26BAKS – Spirit AcademySpirit Academy1.6319lost-19-4665
13.10.26Chicken Coop – ZomblersZomblers1.8220lost-20-4646
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarOvertake Sector1.8319won+16-4626
13.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ex-RUSTECNuclear TigeRES1.7020lost-20-4642
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPLP1.6719won+13-4622
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersGalorys1.6219won+12-4635
12.10.26ex-RUSTEC – The Golden Hordeex-RUSTEC1.5818won+10-4646
12.10.266666 – megoshort66661.7817won+14-4657
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsNuclear TigeRES1.4517won+8-4670
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalSangal1.8316won+14-4678
12.10.26GenOne – The Golden HordeGenOne1.4517lost-17-4692
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansIllyrians1.7217won+12-4674
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC1.4616won+7-4686
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XINuclear TigeRES1.3416won+5-4694
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsPRIVATE1.6617lost-17-4699
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicSangal1.5316won+9-4682
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasNinjas in Pyjamas1.7916won+13-4691
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingLynn Vision1.7515won+11-4704
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsChinggis Warriors1.7416lost-16-4715
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenFire Flux1.7717lost-17-4699
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicNinjas in Pyjamas1.5016won+8-4682
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalSangal1.8117lost-17-4690
12.10.26Rooster – LFO 8Rooster1.7517won+13-4673
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYFruju1.7418lost-18-4686
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.8217won+14-4668
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainregain1.8218lost-18-4682
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.6617won+11-4664
12.10.26Wildcard – DENDELEDENDELE1.8718lost-18-4676
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysGalorys1.4818won+8-4658
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters1.7217won+12-4666
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialImperial1.3518lost-18-4678
11.10.26NT – Johnny SpeedsNT1.7919lost-19-4660
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC1.5518won+10-4641
11.10.26BET-M – PRIVATEBET-M1.8719lost-19-4652
11.10.26antidaun – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.8119won+15-4632
11.10.26XI – ASTRALASTRAL1.6520lost-20-4647
11.10.26mellren – Lavkedmellren1.4719won+9-4628
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle AcademyInner Circle Academy1.5320lost-20-4637
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.