Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-359u
ROI
-1.1%
win rate
55%
bets
1170
drawdown
64.5%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
Martingale
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+0u
period 6top-up-1000u
period 5profit withdrawn+101u
period 4top-up-6u
period 3profit withdrawn+145u
period 2profit withdrawn+285u
period 1profit withdrawn+116u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 1170 | 55% | -359 | -1.1% | 64.5% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1380 | 56% | -770 | -6% | 78.4% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1380 | 56% | -773 | -5.6% | 78.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1380 | 56% | -1519 | -6.4% | 152.2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1380 | 56% | -3498 | -7.3% | 334.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1380 | 56% | -5578 | -8.3% | 503.5% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Selected |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1170, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.09.26 | Grêmio – your end | your end | 1.74 | 297 | lost | -297 | 641 |
| 24.09.26 | Iberian Soul – Phantom | Phantom | 1.64 | 320 | lost | -320 | 938 |
| 24.09.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – RBLS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.49 | 160 | lost | -160 | 1258 |
| 24.09.26 | Permitta – Ryvex | Ryvex | 1.57 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1418 |
| 24.09.26 | Juventus – Yawara | Juventus | 1.88 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1498 |
| 24.09.26 | MEIA NOITE – Zetta | Zetta | 1.88 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1538 |
| 24.09.26 | Turma do Pagode – Keyd Stars | Turma do Pagode | 1.73 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1558 |
| 24.09.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – GBC | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.43 | 20 | won | +9 | 1568 |
| 24.09.26 | WW – Leo | WW | 1.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1560 |
| 24.09.26 | INFURITY – Diamant | INFURITY | 1.71 | 10 | won | +7 | 1570 |
| 24.09.26 | Haunted House – Just Swing | Just Swing | 1.65 | 10 | won | +7 | 1563 |
| 24.09.26 | Imperial – Galorys | Imperial | 1.71 | 80 | won | +57 | 1556 |
| 24.09.26 | Vitalem Aerem – bLight blue | bLight blue | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1499 |
| 24.09.26 | FAFO – INFURITY | FAFO | 1.77 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1539 |
| 24.09.26 | JiJieHao – Eternal Fire | Eternal Fire | 1.53 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1559 |
| 24.09.26 | Nemesis – Rune Eaters | Nemesis | 1.49 | 10 | won | +5 | 1569 |
| 24.09.26 | Nordic Partners – REVENIX | Nordic Partners | 1.79 | 40 | won | +32 | 1564 |
| 24.09.26 | Entropy – eternal premium | Entropy | 1.84 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1533 |
| 24.09.26 | FlyQuest RED – Wanted Goons | FlyQuest RED | 1.46 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1553 |
| 24.09.26 | LAG – DETONATE | LAG | 1.37 | 10 | won | +4 | 1563 |
| 24.09.26 | Villainous – Overtake Sector | Overtake Sector | 1.57 | 80 | won | +45 | 1559 |
| 24.09.26 | Isurus – Grêmio | Isurus | 1.50 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1514 |
| 24.09.26 | Bounty Hunters – Turma do Pagode | Bounty Hunters | 1.59 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1554 |
| 23.09.26 | DAMAJUANA – MEIA NOITE | DAMAJUANA | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1574 |
| 23.09.26 | 95 Vikings – Optibet | Optibet | 1.82 | 20 | won | +16 | 1584 |
| 23.09.26 | Leo – Spirit Academy | Spirit Academy | 1.71 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1567 |
| 23.09.26 | Bushido Wildcats – megoshort | Bushido Wildcats | 1.46 | 10 | won | +5 | 1577 |
| 23.09.26 | METANOIA Wolves – Procyon | Procyon | 1.56 | 10 | won | +6 | 1573 |
| 23.09.26 | KUUSAMO – Mai Tai | KUUSAMO | 1.52 | 20 | won | +10 | 1567 |
| 23.09.26 | mellren – Permitta | mellren | 1.35 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1557 |
| 23.09.26 | EAC – fnatic | fnatic | 1.47 | 40 | won | +19 | 1567 |
| 23.09.26 | Kaleido – Legion | Kaleido | 1.74 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1548 |
| 23.09.26 | THE UNIT – The KnockoutX | THE UNIT | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1568 |
| 23.09.26 | G2 Ares – NAVI Junior | NAVI Junior | 1.75 | 10 | won | +8 | 1578 |
| 23.09.26 | mellren – Permitta | mellren | 1.39 | 10 | won | +4 | 1570 |
| 23.09.26 | Ground Zero – Abyssal | Ground Zero | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 1566 |
| 23.09.26 | FRZ – Overtake Sector | Overtake Sector | 1.60 | 10 | won | +6 | 1559 |
| 23.09.26 | Grêmio – Keyd Stars | Keyd Stars | 1.60 | 10 | won | +6 | 1553 |
| 22.09.26 | DAMAJUANA – Bounty Hunters | Bounty Hunters | 1.44 | 10 | won | +4 | 1547 |
| 22.09.26 | Turma do Pagode – MEIA NOITE | Turma do Pagode | 1.55 | 40 | won | +22 | 1542 |
| 22.09.26 | Inner Circle – 3DMAX | Inner Circle | 1.50 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1520 |
| 22.09.26 | benched gods – MAYBE | benched gods | 1.59 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1540 |
| 22.09.26 | Permitta – KUUSAMO | KUUSAMO | 1.73 | 10 | won | +7 | 1550 |
| 22.09.26 | BERG – mellren | mellren | 1.49 | 10 | won | +5 | 1543 |
| 22.09.26 | Bushido Wildcats – mellren | Bushido Wildcats | 1.72 | 10 | won | +7 | 1538 |
| 22.09.26 | HEROIC – BBL | HEROIC | 1.52 | 80 | won | +41 | 1531 |
| 22.09.26 | BERG – Permitta | BERG | 1.73 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1490 |
| 22.09.26 | mellren – KUUSAMO | mellren | 1.41 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1530 |
| 22.09.26 | Johnny Speeds – Virtus.pro | Virtus.pro | 1.42 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1550 |
| 22.09.26 | Misa – 6666 | Misa | 1.58 | 20 | won | +12 | 1560 |
| 22.09.26 | Just Players – ENCE | Just Players | 1.69 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1548 |
| 22.09.26 | Rune Eaters – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.65 | 10 | won | +6 | 1558 |
| 22.09.26 | MARKandLARRY – LFO 8 | LFO 8 | 1.88 | 40 | won | +35 | 1552 |
| 22.09.26 | INOX Division – Vexar | INOX Division | 1.67 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1516 |
| 22.09.26 | Saint Sinners – KUUSAMO | Saint Sinners | 1.66 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1536 |
| 21.09.26 | WW – Phantom Academy | WW | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 1546 |
| 21.09.26 | Lavked – NAVI Junior | NAVI Junior | 1.78 | 10 | won | +8 | 1539 |
| 21.09.26 | Misa – Honvéd | Misa | 1.62 | 160 | won | +100 | 1532 |
| 21.09.26 | BRUTE – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.88 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1432 |
| 21.09.26 | F5 – Omen | Omen | 1.63 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1512 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.