Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-1000u
ROI
-36.2%
win rate
48%
bets
77
drawdown
100%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2profit withdrawn+0u
period 1top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Martingale | 77 | 48% | -1000 | -36.2% | 100% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 2438 | 53% | -1460 | -7.3% | 149.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 2438 | 53% | -1778 | -7.3% | 182.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2438 | 53% | -2420 | -7.2% | 242.2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2438 | 53% | -3671 | -6.7% | 354.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2438 | 53% | -3988 | -5% | 203.9% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 77, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.05.26 | Galorys – paiN Academy | paiN Academy | 1.77 | 600 | lost | -600 | 0 |
| 18.05.26 | VEXA – Blitzkrieg | Blitzkrieg | 1.77 | 320 | lost | -320 | 600 |
| 18.05.26 | Oramond – ALGO | Oramond | 1.89 | 160 | lost | -160 | 920 |
| 18.05.26 | Yawara – ex-KRÜ | ex-KRÜ | 1.88 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1080 |
| 18.05.26 | BET-M – Tricked | BET-M | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1160 |
| 18.05.26 | ex-RUBY – ASTRAL | ex-RUBY | 1.82 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1200 |
| 18.05.26 | PsychoFace – Leo | PsychoFace | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1220 |
| 18.05.26 | EAC – GenOne | GenOne | 1.82 | 20 | won | +16 | 1230 |
| 18.05.26 | illwill – ex-RUBY | illwill | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1213 |
| 18.05.26 | AM – megoshort | AM | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1223 |
| 18.05.26 | Ursa – Lazer Cats | Ursa | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1205 |
| 18.05.26 | SPARTA – Just Players | Just Players | 1.71 | 10 | won | +7 | 1215 |
| 18.05.26 | Nemesis – Walczaki | Walczaki | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1208 |
| 18.05.26 | fnatic – ex-Zero Tenacity | fnatic | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 1200 |
| 18.05.26 | GUARA – Vasco | GUARA | 1.72 | 40 | won | +29 | 1192 |
| 18.05.26 | UNO MILLE – GUARA | GUARA | 1.77 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1163 |
| 18.05.26 | Procyon – BESTIA Academy | Procyon | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1183 |
| 18.05.26 | METANOIA Wolves – paiN Academy | paiN Academy | 1.82 | 80 | won | +66 | 1193 |
| 17.05.26 | ALKA – MIBR Academy | MIBR Academy | 1.82 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1127 |
| 17.05.26 | CYBERSHOKE Prospects – Endless Journey | CYBERSHOKE Prospects | 1.88 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1167 |
| 17.05.26 | ex-KRÜ – BESTIA Academy | BESTIA Academy | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1187 |
| 17.05.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Inner Circle Academy | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.83 | 20 | won | +17 | 1197 |
| 17.05.26 | BRUTE – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1181 |
| 17.05.26 | SHISHKA – Endless Journey | Endless Journey | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1191 |
| 17.05.26 | Vasco – METANOIA Wolves | METANOIA Wolves | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 1183 |
| 17.05.26 | Legacy – BetBoom | Legacy | 1.88 | 20 | won | +18 | 1174 |
| 17.05.26 | MASONIC – Inner Circle Academy | MASONIC | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1157 |
| 17.05.26 | Bounty Hunters – Yawara | Bounty Hunters | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1167 |
| 17.05.26 | GenOne – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1149 |
| 17.05.26 | R2 – HereWeGoAgain | R2 | 1.89 | 80 | won | +71 | 1159 |
| 17.05.26 | G2 Ares – Falcons Force | G2 Ares | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1088 |
| 17.05.26 | Inner Circle Academy – BASEMENT BOYS | Inner Circle Academy | 1.88 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1128 |
| 17.05.26 | Spirit – Falcons | Falcons | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1148 |
| 17.05.26 | MOUZ – magic | MOUZ | 1.83 | 40 | won | +33 | 1158 |
| 17.05.26 | JiJieHao – Lynn Vision | JiJieHao | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1125 |
| 17.05.26 | MASONIC – Honvéd | Honvéd | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1145 |
| 17.05.26 | Just Players – OlyBet | Just Players | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1155 |
| 17.05.26 | UNO MILLE – Yawara | UNO MILLE | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1137 |
| 17.05.26 | BetBoom – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1147 |
| 16.05.26 | BESTIA Academy – Vasco | BESTIA Academy | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1139 |
| 16.05.26 | VEXA – paiN Academy | paiN Academy | 1.82 | 20 | won | +16 | 1131 |
| 16.05.26 | A Great Chaos – MASONIC | A Great Chaos | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1114 |
| 16.05.26 | PURE – Honvéd | Honvéd | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1124 |
| 16.05.26 | Legacy – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.77 | 40 | won | +31 | 1116 |
| 16.05.26 | Young Ninjas – ex-Zero Tenacity | Young Ninjas | 1.82 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1085 |
| 16.05.26 | SHISHKA – CYBERSHOKE Prospects | SHISHKA | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1105 |
| 16.05.26 | TDK – Lavked | TDK | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1115 |
| 16.05.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – MASONIC | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1106 |
| 16.05.26 | Inner Circle Academy – Honvéd | Inner Circle Academy | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1098 |
| 16.05.26 | magic – Falcons | Falcons | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1089 |
| 16.05.26 | Lynn Vision – THUNDER dOWNUNDER | Lynn Vision | 1.89 | 160 | won | +142 | 1081 |
| 16.05.26 | Nyxon – A Great Chaos | Nyxon | 1.89 | 80 | lost | -80 | 939 |
| 16.05.26 | Johnny Speeds – Oxuji | Johnny Speeds | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1019 |
| 16.05.26 | MASONIC – Rune Eaters | MASONIC | 1.82 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1059 |
| 16.05.26 | Players – GUARA | Players | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1079 |
| 16.05.26 | MASONIC – PURE | MASONIC | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1089 |
| 16.05.26 | Inner Circle Academy – Nyxon | Inner Circle Academy | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1080 |
| 16.05.26 | SPARTA – Walczaki | SPARTA | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1063 |
| 16.05.26 | JiJieHao – TYLOO | JiJieHao | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1073 |
| 16.05.26 | Honvéd – A Great Chaos | Honvéd | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1064 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.