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Always the favorite

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

profit
+2140u
ROI
+20%
win rate
71%
bets
69
drawdown
26.5%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Always the favorite

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-52u
period 2profit withdrawn+1235u
period 1profit withdrawn+958u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll6971%+2140+20%26.5%Selected
5% of bankroll6971%+950+22.1%17%Select
2% of bankroll6971%+351+23.3%8.6%Select
Martingale6971%+289+27.5%5.5%Select
1% of bankroll6971%+171+23.7%4.8%Select
Flat (10 units)6971%+166+24.1%4.5%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 69, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Team Resilience – Yakult BrothersTeam Resilience1.6189won+543140
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.8899lost-993086
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceShadow Dance1.88110lost-1103185
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyDawn Bulls1.54105won+573295
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Rising1.8297won+803239
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.7090won+643159
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONTeam Spirit1.7084won+593095
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.8794lost-943036
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.6888won+603130
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex1.6982won+573070
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroCyberHero1.7277won+553013
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.7585lost-852958
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamDaxak Team1.6694lost-943043
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming1.8687won+753137
02.10.261w Team – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis1.7697lost-973063
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.85107lost-1073159
01.10.26GamerLegion – Yakult BrothersGamerLegion1.75100won+753267
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.74248lost-2483192
30.09.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.88276lost-2763441
29.09.261w Team – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.43307lost-3073716
27.09.26avice Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.82283won+2344023
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.53269won+1433789
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice TeamRostik Team1.86248won+2123647
25.09.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.54275lost-2753435
25.09.26Solo Team – avice Teamavice Team1.82254won+2093710
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.64239won+1543501
24.09.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.88220won+1933347
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w TeamTeam Yandex1.82203won+1663154
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxYellow Submarine1.81188won+1522988
24.09.26Two Move – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.79174won+1382836
24.09.26Daxak Team – gpK~ TeamDaxak Team1.50166won+832698
24.09.26YBN Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team1.72155won+1112615
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingTeam Spirit Academy1.58172lost-1722504
22.09.26avice Team – Daxak TeamDaxak Team1.66161won+1072676
22.09.26Natus Vincere – 1w TeamNatus Vincere1.57153won+862569
22.09.26Team Nemesis – GamerLegionTeam Nemesis1.74170lost-1702483
21.09.26YBN Team – NS TeamYBN Team1.83188lost-1882653
21.09.26Solo Team – Daxak TeamDaxak Team1.71176won+1252841
21.09.26Team Nemesis – MOUZTeam Nemesis1.64165won+1062716
21.09.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataKalmychata1.55157won+862610
21.09.26GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4Pipsqueak+41.87174lost-1742524
20.09.26Inner Circle – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.65163won+1062698
20.09.26Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme GamingConventus Stellarum1.89182lost-1822592
20.09.26PlayTime – Team CobraTeam Cobra1.89167won+1482774
19.09.26LGD Gaming – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers1.82185lost-1852626
18.09.26uralan – Two MoveTwo Move1.89170won+1512812
18.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.79158won+1252661
17.09.26Kalmychata – uralanuralan1.82175lost-1752536
17.09.26Nemiga Gaming – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.62165won+1032711
16.09.26Inner Circle – uralanuralan1.87152won+1332608
13.09.26Recrent Team – Stariy_Bog ClubStariy_Bog Club1.77141won+1082475
12.09.26Team Nemesis – InterActive PhilippinesTeam Nemesis1.82130won+1072367
10.09.26GamerLegion – Klim Sani4Klim Sani41.63123won+772260
09.09.26Klim Sani4 – Inner CircleKlim Sani41.74114won+842183
09.09.26Natus Vincere – GamerLegionNatus Vincere1.82105won+872099
08.09.26MOUZ – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.8297won+802012
07.09.26GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4Pipsqueak+41.81108lost-1081932
01.09.26Zero Tenacity – Team Spirit AcademyZero Tenacity1.83100won+832040
30.08.26Natus Vincere – MOUZMOUZ1.88218lost-2181958
29.08.26Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit AcademyKlim Sani41.77202won+1552175
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Always the favorite" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.