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Always the favorite

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

profit
+300u
ROI
+11.8%
win rate
64%
bets
129
drawdown
12.2%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Always the favorite

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+87u
period 2profit withdrawn+20u
period 1profit withdrawn+193u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll12964%+1533+12.9%32.4%Select
5% of bankroll12964%+755+12.1%23.8%Select
2% of bankroll12964%+300+11.8%12.2%Selected
Martingale12964%+158+4.9%55.1%Select
1% of bankroll12964%+150+11.7%6.7%Select
Flat (10 units)12964%+149+11.6%6.6%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 129, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Team Resilience – Yakult BrothersTeam Resilience1.6121won+131300
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampTeam Lynx1.4021won+91287
14.10.26The WarriorsQ – Shadow DanceShadow Dance1.8321won+171279
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.3521lost-211261
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQPower Rangers1.8221won+171283
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyDawn Bulls1.5421won+111265
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Rising1.8220won+171254
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.7020won+141237
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONTeam Spirit1.7020won+141223
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.8720lost-201209
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.6820won+141229
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8820lost-201216
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w TeamAurora Gaming1.8620won+171236
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex1.6920won+141219
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8919won+171205
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONTeam Synapse1.8520lost-201188
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroCyberHero1.6620won+131207
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.6520lost-201195
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroCyberHero1.7220won+141215
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingMOUZ1.7719won+151200
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8919won+171185
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroYellow Submarine1.6319won+121168
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.7519lost-191156
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamDaxak Team1.6620lost-201176
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming1.8619won+171195
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGBETBOOM TEAM1.8720lost-201179
02.10.261w Team – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis1.7620lost-201199
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.8521lost-211219
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidAurora Gaming1.7420won+151239
01.10.26Team Yandex – BETBOOM TEAMTeam Yandex1.5620won+111224
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.7421lost-211213
30.09.26Team Yandex – MOUZTeam Yandex1.4621won+91234
30.09.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.8821lost-211224
29.09.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.8721won+181245
29.09.261w Team – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.4321lost-211227
29.09.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Spirit1.7521won+161248
27.09.26YBN Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.6921won+141233
27.09.26Daxak Team – Rostik TeamDaxak Team1.6320won+131219
27.09.26Stray Team – YBN TeamStray Team1.7421lost-211206
27.09.26avice Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.8220won+171227
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.5320won+111210
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice TeamRostik Team1.8620won+171199
25.09.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingXtreme Gaming1.7820lost-201182
25.09.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.5421lost-211202
25.09.26Solo Team – avice Teamavice Team1.8220won+171223
25.09.26GamerLegion – 1w TeamGamerLegion1.8320won+171206
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.6420won+131190
24.09.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.8819won+171177
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w TeamTeam Yandex1.8219won+161160
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxYellow Submarine1.8119won+151145
24.09.26Two Move – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.7918won+151129
24.09.26Daxak Team – gpK~ TeamDaxak Team1.5018won+91115
24.09.26Natus Vincere – LGD GamingNatus Vincere1.5319lost-191106
24.09.26YBN Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team1.7218won+131124
23.09.26Stray Team – NS TeamStray Team1.7818won+141111
23.09.26Team Nemesis – Conventus StellarumTeam Nemesis1.7418won+131097
22.09.26LGD Gaming – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.8718won+151084
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingTeam Spirit Academy1.5818lost-181069
22.09.26avice Team – Daxak TeamDaxak Team1.6618won+121086
22.09.26MOUZ – HokoriHokori1.7818lost-181075
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Always the favorite" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.