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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-14096u
ROI
-97.5%
win rate
2%
bets
300
drawdown
1409.6%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Quarter Kelly

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-309u
period 24top-up-458u
period 23top-up-666u
period 22top-up-584u
period 21top-up-716u
period 20top-up-659u
period 19top-up-435u
period 18top-up-637u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale8738%-1949-48.2%194.9%Select
1% of bankroll49437%-2627-56.1%262.7%Select
Flat (10 units)49437%-2776-56.2%277.6%Select
2% of bankroll49437%-4977-56.1%497.6%Select
5% of bankroll49437%-10630-55.9%1062.5%Select
Quarter Kelly3002%-14096-97.5%1409.6%Select
10% of bankroll49437%-16663-55.5%1664.8%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 300, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0077lost-77-13096
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.009lost-9-13019
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0058lost-58-13009
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0069lost-69-12951
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0095lost-95-12882
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0060lost-60-12787
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.0026lost-26-12727
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.0036lost-36-12701
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming3.6021lost-21-12665
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.0055lost-55-12643
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8051lost-51-12588
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritREKONIX15.0028lost-28-12537
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleInner Circle15.007lost-7-12509
08.07.26GamerLegion – Xtreme GamingGamerLegion15.0092lost-92-12502
08.07.26Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TeamPoor Rangers15.0023lost-23-12411
07.07.26Inner Circle – 1w TeamInner Circle15.0059lost-59-12387
28.06.26Nigma Galaxy – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine5.8024lost-24-12329
28.06.26By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE TeamALOHADANCE Team13.0036lost-36-12305
25.06.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy12.0037lost-37-12268
24.06.26Dread Team – DangerLyoha TeamDangerLyoha Team3.2031lost-31-12232
21.06.26InterActive Philippines – Mentality MonsterInterActive Philippines10.0041lost-41-12201
21.06.26Grind Back – Carstensz EsportsCarstensz Esports13.0051lost-51-12160
19.06.26summer bear – Power Rangerssummer bear13.0042lost-42-12108
17.06.26Power Rangers – Flame EsportsFlame Esports12.0047lost-47-12066
11.06.26Team Nemesis – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0068lost-68-12019
10.06.26L1ga Team – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity11.0069lost-69-11951
06.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club3.1054lost-54-11882
05.06.26Execration – REKONIXExecration13.0082lost-82-11828
04.06.26Carstensz Esports – REKONIXCarstensz Esports12.0083lost-83-11746
30.05.26Team Spirit – OGOG15.0025lost-25-11663
28.05.26NS Club – Ramzes ClubNS Club5.3047lost-47-11638
27.05.26OG – Team YandexOG15.0020lost-20-11591
24.05.26Recrent Team – Solo TeamRecrent Team12.0056lost-56-11571
22.05.26Aurora Gaming – Tundra EsportsTundra Esports11.0058lost-58-11515
17.05.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion8.5014lost-14-11457
15.05.26Virtus.pro – Team SpiritVirtus.pro15.0034lost-34-11443
12.05.26Two Move – Power RangersTwo Move12.0072lost-72-11409
10.05.261w Team – PARIVISION1w Team15.0040lost-40-11338
09.05.261w Team – REKONIXREKONIX15.0087lost-87-11298
02.05.26Vici Gaming – Roar GamingRoar Gaming12.0054lost-54-11211
01.05.26Vici Gaming – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning13.0078lost-78-11157
30.04.26Power Rangers – South America RejectsPower Rangers15.0032lost-32-11079
29.04.26Zero Tenacity – South America RejectsZero Tenacity15.0035lost-35-11047
27.04.26Power Rangers – 1w TeamPower Rangers2.5014lost-14-11012
23.04.26Estar Backs – Power RangersEstar Backs5.8023lost-23-10998
23.04.26Aurora Gaming – HeroicHeroic15.0023lost-23-10975
22.04.26Team Lynx – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming4.2015won+48-10952
22.04.26GamerLegion – HeroicGamerLegion15.0040lost-40-11001
21.04.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion14.0030lost-30-10960
20.04.26Heroic – Virtus.proVirtus.pro15.0039lost-39-10930
20.04.26MODUS – Roar GamingRoar Gaming4.4030lost-30-10891
19.04.261w Team – IvoryIvory13.0038lost-38-10861
14.04.26MOUZ – Team LiquidMOUZ14.0030lost-30-10823
12.04.26Carstensz Esports – Team NemesisCarstensz Esports13.0058lost-58-10792
11.04.26MOUZ – Nigma GalaxyMOUZ15.0070lost-70-10734
10.04.26GamerLegion – Nigma GalaxyGamerLegion3.2043lost-43-10664
05.04.26Virtus.pro – L1ga TeamVirtus.pro14.0076lost-76-10621
02.04.26Natus Vincere – L1ga TeamL1ga Team12.0073lost-73-10545
02.04.26Aurora Gaming – Team LynxTeam Lynx12.0025lost-25-10472
02.04.26Team Nemesis – PlayTimePlayTime4.0083lost-83-10446
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.