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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-24846u
ROI
-94.4%
win rate
3%
bets
2992
drawdown
2484.6%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Quarter Kelly

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-994u
period 24top-up-988u
period 23top-up-1000u
period 22top-up-1000u
period 21top-up-1000u
period 20top-up-999u
period 19top-up-1000u
period 18top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Flat (10 units)23741%-1200-50.7%120%Select
Martingale6933%-1384-40.5%138.4%Select
1% of bankroll499338%-15800-52%1580.4%Select
2% of bankroll499338%-21215-51.6%2122%Select
5% of bankroll499338%-24429-51.2%2443%Select
Quarter Kelly29923%-24846-94.4%2484.6%Select
10% of bankroll499338%-24875-51.3%2487.5%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2992, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.001lost-1-23846
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.000lost-0-23846
20.08.261w Team – Team Spirit1w Team15.001lost-1-23845
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.001lost-1-23844
16.08.26GamerLegion – 1w TeamGamerLegion15.001lost-1-23844
16.08.26Team Spirit – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience14.000lost-0-23843
16.08.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.001lost-1-23843
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Team FalconsBETBOOM Team2.701lost-1-23842
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming14.001lost-1-23842
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.001lost-1-23841
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingBETBOOM Team15.001lost-1-23840
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.301lost-1-23839
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.002lost-2-23838
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.002lost-2-23836
15.08.26Team Resilience – Team YandexTeam Resilience15.001lost-1-23834
15.08.26OG – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.002lost-2-23834
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.001lost-1-23832
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.002lost-2-23831
14.08.26GamerLegion – Vici GamingGamerLegion15.002lost-2-23829
14.08.26BETBOOM Team – PARIVISIONBETBOOM Team9.002lost-2-23826
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyLGD Gaming15.003lost-3-23825
14.08.26L1ga Team – Vici GamingL1ga Team4.202lost-2-23821
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyOG5.803lost-3-23820
13.08.26Team Resilience – LGD GamingTeam Resilience8.503lost-3-23817
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – 1w Team1w Team4.401lost-1-23814
13.08.26Team Yandex – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.001lost-1-23813
13.08.26Team Spirit – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming14.003lost-3-23812
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.002lost-2-23809
13.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.003lost-3-23807
13.08.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingLGD Gaming4.501lost-1-23804
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.001lost-1-23804
11.08.26Level UP – Natus VincereLevel UP15.001lost-1-23803
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereRune Eaters15.002lost-2-23802
10.08.26Team Lynx – Rune Eaters AriseTeam Lynx11.006lost-6-23799
10.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Zero TenacityIlbirs eSports13.007lost-7-23793
09.08.26Zero Tenacity – Natus VincereZero Tenacity14.003lost-3-23787
09.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Rune EatersIlbirs eSports14.008lost-8-23784
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Team JenzTeam Jenz4.006lost-6-23776
08.08.26Power Rangers – Team SyntaxTeam Syntax12.005lost-5-23770
07.08.26Power Rangers – Team JenzTeam Jenz10.005lost-5-23765
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0010lost-10-23760
06.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Power RangersIlbirs eSports6.605lost-5-23749
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w Team1w Team15.0010lost-10-23744
05.08.26PlayTime – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers15.0010lost-10-23735
05.08.26Team Resilience – Rune EatersRune Eaters8.0012lost-12-23724
04.08.26Team Liquid – Team FalconsTeam Liquid13.0015lost-15-23712
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersRune Eaters12.0017lost-17-23697
04.08.26PlayTime – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience13.0018lost-18-23680
04.08.26BETBOOM Team – OGOG11.008lost-8-23662
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0015lost-15-23654
03.08.26OG – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0024lost-24-23639
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0020lost-20-23616
02.08.26Zero Tenacity – LGD GamingZero Tenacity14.0015lost-15-23596
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingLGD Gaming5.0018lost-18-23581
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0030lost-30-23564
02.08.26Team Falcons – 1w Team1w Team15.0019lost-19-23533
02.08.26GamerLegion – MOUZMOUZ15.0038lost-38-23514
02.08.26Stray Team – NS TeamNS Team11.0041lost-41-23477
02.08.26PlayTime – ExecrationExecration6.3020lost-20-23436
01.08.26Team Liquid – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0025lost-25-23415
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.