Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
+0u
ROI
+0%
win rate
0%
bets
0
drawdown
0%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
Quarter Kelly
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2profit withdrawn+0u
period 1profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 259 | 38% | -549 | -23.1% | 56.2% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 259 | 38% | -597 | -23% | 61.3% | Select |
| Martingale | 32 | 22% | -1000 | -36.3% | 100% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 259 | 38% | -1009 | -23.3% | 103.1% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 259 | 38% | -1964 | -23.6% | 199.2% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 259 | 38% | -2675 | -23.9% | 263.1% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 0, showing the last 60.
This strategy places no bets in the selected sample.
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.