Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-97u
ROI
-13.6%
win rate
42%
bets
36
drawdown
17.7%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
2% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+61u
period 2top-up-97u
period 1top-up-61u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 36 | 42% | -49 | -13.6% | 9% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 36 | 42% | -49 | -13.6% | 9.1% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 36 | 42% | -97 | -13.6% | 17.7% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 36 | 42% | -239 | -13.6% | 42.5% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 36 | 42% | -464 | -13.5% | 78.5% | Select |
| Martingale | 23 | 30% | -1008 | -62.1% | 100.7% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 36, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Dawn Bulls | Nemiga Gaming | 3.13 | 20 | won | +43 | 903 |
| 13.10.26 | CyberHero – Shadow Dance | CyberHero | 1.90 | 20 | won | +18 | 859 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | The WarriorsQ | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 841 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Dawning | 1.95 | 21 | lost | -21 | 862 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.12 | 21 | lost | -21 | 883 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.91 | 21 | won | +19 | 904 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.13 | 21 | lost | -21 | 885 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | HULIGANI | 2.08 | 22 | lost | -22 | 906 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Spirit | 2.05 | 21 | won | +22 | 928 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 2.19 | 21 | won | +25 | 906 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | 1w Team | 2.03 | 20 | won | +21 | 881 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 20 | won | +18 | 860 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | PARIVISION | 2.07 | 18 | won | +19 | 842 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | avice Team | 1.95 | 18 | lost | -18 | 823 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 2.46 | 18 | lost | -18 | 841 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.92 | 19 | lost | -19 | 859 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Team Nemesis | 2.21 | 19 | lost | -19 | 878 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 897 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.97 | 20 | lost | -20 | 917 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | avice Team | 2.18 | 20 | lost | -20 | 937 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.35 | 20 | won | +27 | 957 |
| 21.09.26 | YBN Team – NS Team | NS Team | 1.95 | 19 | won | +19 | 930 |
| 21.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | GamerLegion | 1.90 | 19 | won | +17 | 912 |
| 20.09.26 | Inner Circle – Yellow Submarine | Inner Circle | 2.21 | 20 | lost | -20 | 894 |
| 20.09.26 | PlayTime – Team Cobra | PlayTime | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 914 |
| 20.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.89 | 20 | won | +17 | 934 |
| 19.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Yakult Brothers | LGD Gaming | 1.95 | 19 | won | +18 | 916 |
| 16.09.26 | Inner Circle – uralan | Inner Circle | 1.90 | 20 | lost | -20 | 898 |
| 12.09.26 | Team Nemesis – InterActive Philippines | InterActive Philippines | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 918 |
| 08.09.26 | MOUZ – GamerLegion | MOUZ | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 938 |
| 07.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | GamerLegion | 1.97 | 20 | won | +19 | 958 |
| 30.08.26 | Natus Vincere – MOUZ | Natus Vincere | 1.89 | 18 | won | +16 | 939 |
| 29.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 2.02 | 19 | lost | -19 | 922 |
| 29.08.26 | DYNASTY – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.47 | 19 | lost | -19 | 941 |
| 24.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 960 |
| 23.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | PARIVISION | 2.02 | 20 | lost | -20 | 980 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.