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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-21220u
ROI
-51.6%
win rate
38%
bets
4992
drawdown
2122%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

2% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-734u
period 24top-up-747u
period 23top-up-862u
period 22top-up-938u
period 21top-up-876u
period 20top-up-870u
period 19top-up-923u
period 18top-up-956u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Flat (10 units)23741%-1200-50.7%120%Select
Martingale5332%-1351-55.5%135.1%Select
1% of bankroll499238%-15804-52%1580.4%Select
2% of bankroll499238%-21220-51.6%2122%Select
5% of bankroll499238%-24430-51.2%2443%Select
Quarter Kelly29923%-24846-94.4%2484.6%Select
10% of bankroll499238%-24875-51.3%2487.5%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 4992, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.005lost-5-20220
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.006lost-6-20214
20.08.261w Team – Team Spirit1w Team15.006lost-6-20209
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.006lost-6-20203
16.08.26GamerLegion – 1w TeamGamerLegion15.006lost-6-20197
16.08.26Team Spirit – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience14.006lost-6-20191
16.08.26Aurora Gaming – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.056won+0-20185
16.08.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.006lost-6-20186
15.08.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.176won+1-20180
15.08.261w Team – Team Yandex1w Team1.926won+6-20181
15.08.26Team Liquid – Aurora GamingTeam Liquid1.126won+1-20186
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Team FalconsBETBOOM Team2.706lost-6-20187
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.016won+0-20181
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming14.006lost-6-20181
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.036won+0-20175
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.006lost-6-20175
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingBETBOOM Team15.006lost-6-20168
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.307lost-7-20162
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.007lost-7-20155
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.007lost-7-20149
15.08.26Team Resilience – Team YandexTeam Resilience15.007lost-7-20142
15.08.26OG – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.007lost-7-20135
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.007lost-7-20128
14.08.26Team Yandex – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.157won+1-20120
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.007lost-7-20121
14.08.26Team Spirit – Team LiquidTeam Spirit1.037won+0-20114
14.08.26GamerLegion – Vici GamingGamerLegion15.008lost-8-20114
14.08.26Team Resilience – OGTeam Resilience1.308won+2-20107
14.08.261w Team – Team Falcons1w Team1.108won+1-20109
14.08.26BETBOOM Team – PARIVISIONBETBOOM Team9.008lost-8-20110
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyLGD Gaming15.008lost-8-20102
14.08.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.228won+2-20094
14.08.26L1ga Team – Vici GamingL1ga Team4.208lost-8-20096
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.178won+1-20088
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.028won+0-20089
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONTeam Falcons1.808lost-8-20089
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyOG5.808lost-8-20081
13.08.26Team Resilience – LGD GamingTeam Resilience8.508lost-8-20073
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – 1w Team1w Team4.409lost-9-20065
13.08.26Team Yandex – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.009lost-9-20056
13.08.26Team Spirit – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming14.009lost-9-20047
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.009lost-9-20038
13.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.009lost-9-20029
13.08.261w Team – Nigma Galaxy1w Team1.019won+0-20020
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – OGOG3.209lost-9-20020
13.08.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingLGD Gaming4.5010lost-10-20011
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.0010lost-10-20001
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersLevel UP1.2210won+2-19991
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityRune Eaters1.0110won+0-19993
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0110won+0-19993
11.08.26Level UP – Team Spirit AcademyLevel UP1.1710won+2-19993
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZRune Eaters1.0110won+0-19995
11.08.26Team Spirit Academy – No HoodwinkTeam Spirit Academy1.0110won+0-19995
11.08.26Level UP – Natus VincereLevel UP15.0010lost-10-19995
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereRune Eaters15.0010lost-10-19985
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink1.2510won+3-19975
10.08.26Yellow Submarine – Level UPLevel UP1.0110won+0-19978
10.08.26Team Lynx – Rune Eaters AriseTeam Lynx11.0010lost-10-19978
10.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Zero TenacityIlbirs eSports13.0011lost-11-19967
10.08.26Power Rangers – MOUZMOUZ1.0811won+1-19957
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.