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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-1042u
ROI
-23.5%
win rate
38%
bets
265
drawdown
105.5%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-268u
period 2top-up-408u
period 1top-up-365u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll26538%-568-23.4%57.5%Select
Flat (10 units)26538%-618-23.3%62.7%Select
Martingale3222%-1000-36.3%100%Select
2% of bankroll26538%-1042-23.5%105.5%Select
5% of bankroll26538%-2017-23.8%203.5%Select
10% of bankroll26538%-2718-24.1%267.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 265, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26By_Owl Team – Korb3n TeamBy_Owl Team1.8914won+13-42
14.10.26Yellow Submarine – Power RangersPower Rangers2.0915lost-15-55
14.10.26Kalmychata – HULIGANIHULIGANI2.4615lost-15-40
14.10.26zxcursed Team – Nix Teamzxcursed Team1.9515won+14-25
14.10.26CyberHero – KalmychataCyberHero1.9415lost-15-39
14.10.26Team Resilience – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers2.2815lost-15-24
14.10.26zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE TeamALOHADANCE Team1.8915won+13-9
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampPuckChamp2.8915lost-15-22
14.10.26The WarriorsQ – Shadow DanceThe WarriorsQ1.9416lost-16-7
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataNemiga Gaming2.4516lost-169
14.10.26Inner Circle – Team LynxInner Circle2.5216lost-1625
13.10.26By_Owl Team – Stariy_bog TeamBy_Owl Team1.8916won+1441
13.10.26HULIGANI – Yellow SubmarineHULIGANI2.4316lost-1627
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsNemiga Gaming3.1316won+3343
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStray Team1.8915won+1410
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQThe WarriorsQ1.9516lost-16-4
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceCyberHero1.9015won+1412
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.4316lost-16-2
13.10.26Gorgc Team – Nix TeamGorgc Team2.0315won+1614
13.10.26Team Resilience – Cloud RisingTeam Resilience1.9515won+14-2
13.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Nix TeamNix Team1.9515won+14-16
13.10.26HULIGANI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0215lost-15-31
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning1.9515lost-15-15
13.10.26Team Lynx – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity2.2116lost-160
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsThe WarriorsQ2.1116lost-1616
12.10.26By_Owl Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.9616won+1532
12.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Gorgc TeamGorgc Team1.8916lost-1617
12.10.26CyberHero – Team LynxCyberHero2.0116lost-1633
12.10.26Nemiga Gaming – 111Nemiga Gaming2.5516won+2549
12.10.26CyberHero – PuckChampPuckChamp2.2216lost-1625
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.1217lost-1741
11.10.26Hokori – New GrowthHokori2.0116won+1757
10.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION1.9516won+1541
10.10.26Team Yandex – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.9516lost-1626
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingAurora Gaming1.9116won+1542
09.10.26PARIVISION – 1w Team1w Team1.9216lost-1628
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming2.1417lost-1744
08.10.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION2.3217lost-1761
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8917won+1578
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w Team1w Team1.9117lost-1763
08.10.26Team Synapse – BlasterbITeam Synapse1.9317lost-1780
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.1318lost-1897
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbICyberHero1.8918lost-18115
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONLEGION1.9218won+16133
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroMOUZ2.1918lost-18117
07.10.26Yellow Submarine – BlasterbIBlasterbI2.2218won+22135
06.10.26LEGION – MOUZMOUZ2.1918lost-18113
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.2018won+21131
06.10.26BlasterbI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.3618lost-18110
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroHULIGANI2.0818lost-18128
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0319lost-19147
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8919lost-19165
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroCyberHero2.2320lost-20185
05.10.26Team Synapse – HULIGANIHULIGANI2.1120lost-20204
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Spirit2.0520won+21224
03.10.261w Team – OG1w Team1.8919won+17204
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamCake Team2.1919won+22186
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.9219lost-19164
03.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION2.0419won+19183
03.10.26Rostik Team – Cake TeamRostik Team1.9719lost-19164
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.