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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-567u
ROI
-23.1%
win rate
38%
bets
131
drawdown
59%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

2% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-126u
period 2top-up-219u
period 1top-up-222u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll13138%-294-23.1%30.8%Select
Flat (10 units)13138%-303-23.1%31.9%Select
2% of bankroll13138%-567-23.1%59%Selected
Martingale813%-1000-98.1%100%Select
5% of bankroll13138%-1271-22.9%128.7%Select
10% of bankroll13138%-2083-22.2%202.2%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 131, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26By_Owl Team – Korb3n TeamBy_Owl Team1.8917won+15433
14.10.26Kalmychata – HULIGANIHULIGANI2.4618lost-18417
14.10.26Team Resilience – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers2.2818lost-18435
14.10.26zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE TeamALOHADANCE Team1.8918won+16453
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataNemiga Gaming2.4518lost-18437
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStray Team1.8918won+16455
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceCyberHero1.9017won+16439
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.4318lost-18424
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning1.9518lost-18441
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsThe WarriorsQ2.1118lost-18459
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.1219lost-19478
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingAurora Gaming1.9118won+17497
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming2.1419lost-19480
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8918won+16499
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w Team1w Team1.9119lost-19482
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.1319lost-19501
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbICyberHero1.8920lost-20520
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONLEGION1.9219won+18540
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroMOUZ2.1920lost-20522
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.2019won+23542
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroHULIGANI2.0820lost-20519
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0320lost-20539
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8920lost-20559
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroCyberHero2.2321lost-21579
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Spirit2.0520won+21600
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamCake Team2.1920won+24578
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.9220lost-20555
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.9020won+18575
02.10.261w Team – Team Nemesis1w Team2.0320won+20557
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.9219won+18537
01.10.26GamerLegion – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers2.0520lost-20519
01.10.26MOUZ – OGMOUZ2.0320lost-20539
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingPARIVISION2.0715won+16559
30.09.26Team Yandex – MOUZMOUZ2.6816lost-16542
30.09.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGBETBOOM TEAM1.8915won+14558
29.09.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.9016lost-16544
29.09.261w Team – Natus Vincere1w Team2.7515won+27560
29.09.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.0515lost-15534
27.09.26YBN Team – Cake TeamYBN Team2.1316lost-16549
27.09.26Daxak Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team2.2316lost-16565
27.09.26Stray Team – YBN TeamYBN Team2.0516won+17581
27.09.26avice Team – Cake Teamavice Team1.9516lost-16564
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereLGD Gaming2.4616lost-16580
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice Teamavice Team1.9217lost-17597
25.09.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.0116won+17613
25.09.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.4316won+23597
25.09.26Solo Team – avice TeamSolo Team1.9616lost-16574
25.09.26GamerLegion – 1w Team1w Team1.9517lost-17590
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereTeam Nemesis2.2117lost-17607
24.09.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.9017lost-17624
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w Team1w Team1.9618lost-18641
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.9718lost-18659
24.09.26Two Move – Team LynxTwo Move1.9918lost-18677
24.09.26Daxak Team – gpK~ TeamgpK~ Team2.5419lost-19695
24.09.26Natus Vincere – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.4718won+27714
24.09.26YBN Team – Rostik TeamYBN Team2.1019lost-19687
23.09.26Stray Team – NS TeamNS Team2.0119lost-19705
23.09.26Team Nemesis – Conventus StellarumConventus Stellarum2.0619lost-19724
22.09.26LGD Gaming – Aurora GamingLGD Gaming1.9020lost-20744
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.3519won+26763
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.