Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-22691u
ROI
-51.5%
win rate
38%
bets
2542
drawdown
2258.3%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-775u
period 24top-up-846u
period 23top-up-922u
period 22top-up-979u
period 21top-up-929u
period 20top-up-973u
period 19top-up-918u
period 18top-up-981u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 89 | 44% | -1259 | -36.8% | 125.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 2542 | 38% | -10222 | -52.4% | 1021.3% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 2542 | 38% | -13388 | -52.7% | 1337.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2542 | 38% | -16075 | -52.2% | 1604.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2542 | 38% | -22691 | -51.5% | 2258.3% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 1520 | 3% | -24227 | -93.2% | 2422.7% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2542 | 38% | -24531 | -50.8% | 2429.8% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2542, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 12 | lost | -12 | -21691 |
| 20.08.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 12 | lost | -12 | -21679 |
| 16.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Yandex | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 13 | lost | -13 | -21667 |
| 15.08.26 | OG – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.01 | 13 | won | +0 | -21654 |
| 15.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 1.03 | 13 | won | +0 | -21654 |
| 15.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 14.00 | 14 | lost | -14 | -21654 |
| 15.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – Aurora Gaming | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 15 | lost | -15 | -21640 |
| 15.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Liquid | 1w Team | 5.30 | 15 | lost | -15 | -21626 |
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 16 | lost | -16 | -21611 |
| 15.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 17 | lost | -17 | -21594 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 18 | lost | -18 | -21578 |
| 14.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Nigma Galaxy | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -21560 |
| 14.08.26 | Team Yandex – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.17 | 19 | won | +3 | -21541 |
| 13.08.26 | Team Falcons – PARIVISION | Team Falcons | 1.80 | 20 | lost | -20 | -21544 |
| 13.08.26 | OG – Nigma Galaxy | OG | 5.80 | 21 | lost | -21 | -21525 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 22 | lost | -22 | -21504 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 23 | lost | -23 | -21482 |
| 12.08.26 | Level UP – Rune Eaters | Level UP | 1.22 | 23 | won | +5 | -21459 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters – Zero Tenacity | Rune Eaters | 1.01 | 23 | won | +0 | -21464 |
| 11.08.26 | Yellow Submarine – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 1.01 | 23 | won | +0 | -21465 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters – MOUZ | Rune Eaters | 1.01 | 23 | won | +0 | -21465 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters – Natus Vincere | Rune Eaters | 15.00 | 24 | lost | -24 | -21465 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 1.25 | 23 | won | +6 | -21441 |
| 08.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 1.01 | 23 | won | +0 | -21447 |
| 07.08.26 | Team Jenz – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 1.02 | 23 | won | +0 | -21447 |
| 07.08.26 | Zero Tenacity – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 13.00 | 25 | lost | -25 | -21448 |
| 06.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Power Rangers | Ilbirs eSports | 6.60 | 26 | lost | -26 | -21423 |
| 06.08.26 | No Hoodwink – Level UP | Level UP | 2.25 | 24 | won | +30 | -21397 |
| 05.08.26 | Team Liquid – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 26 | lost | -26 | -21428 |
| 05.08.26 | PlayTime – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 15.00 | 27 | lost | -27 | -21402 |
| 05.08.26 | 1w Team – BETBOOM Team | 1w Team | 1.01 | 27 | won | +0 | -21375 |
| 04.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Falcons | Team Liquid | 13.00 | 28 | lost | -28 | -21375 |
| 04.08.26 | Yakult Brothers – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 12.00 | 30 | lost | -30 | -21347 |
| 04.08.26 | PlayTime – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 13.00 | 32 | lost | -32 | -21317 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 33 | lost | -33 | -21286 |
| 03.08.26 | Vici Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 1.26 | 33 | won | +9 | -21252 |
| 03.08.26 | OG – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 34 | lost | -34 | -21261 |
| 03.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 1.30 | 34 | won | +10 | -21226 |
| 03.08.26 | LGD Gaming – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.01 | 34 | won | +0 | -21237 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 36 | lost | -36 | -21237 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 5.00 | 38 | lost | -38 | -21201 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | -21164 |
| 02.08.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.06 | 39 | won | +2 | -21124 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Falcons – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 42 | lost | -42 | -21126 |
| 02.08.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 1.06 | 41 | won | +2 | -21085 |
| 01.08.26 | Stray Team – TpaBoMaH Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.04 | 41 | won | +2 | -21087 |
| 01.08.26 | GLYPH – Zero Tenacity | GLYPH | 1.10 | 41 | won | +4 | -21089 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | NS Team | 1.20 | 41 | won | +8 | -21093 |
| 01.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -21101 |
| 01.08.26 | Daxak Team – Team avice | Daxak Team | 11.00 | 45 | lost | -45 | -21058 |
| 01.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 14.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -21013 |
| 01.08.26 | Midas Club – Team Resilience | Midas Club | 14.00 | 50 | lost | -50 | -20966 |
| 31.07.26 | Xtreme Gaming – LGD Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.85 | 7 | won | +6 | -20916 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.17 | 7 | won | +1 | -20922 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -20923 |
| 31.07.26 | Enjoy Boys – GLYPH | Enjoy Boys | 14.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -20916 |
| 31.07.26 | L1ga Team – REKONIX | REKONIX | 1.05 | 8 | won | +0 | -20907 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 7.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -20908 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -20899 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -20890 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.