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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-2011u
ROI
-24%
win rate
38%
bets
261
drawdown
201.1%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

5% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-561u
period 2top-up-762u
period 1top-up-688u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll26138%-566-23.7%56.6%Select
Flat (10 units)26138%-617-23.6%61.7%Select
Martingale3222%-1000-36.3%100%Select
2% of bankroll26138%-1039-23.8%103.9%Select
5% of bankroll26138%-2011-24%201.1%Select
10% of bankroll26138%-2713-24.2%265.3%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 261, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26CyberHero – KalmychataCyberHero1.9423lost-23-1011
14.10.26Team Resilience – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers2.2824lost-24-988
14.10.26Team Lynx – PuckChampPuckChamp2.8926lost-26-964
14.10.26zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE TeamALOHADANCE Team1.8925won+22-938
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataNemiga Gaming2.4526lost-26-960
14.10.26The WarriorsQ – Shadow DanceThe WarriorsQ1.9427lost-27-934
14.10.26Inner Circle – Team LynxInner Circle2.5229lost-29-907
13.10.26By_Owl Team – Stariy_bog TeamBy_Owl Team1.8927won+24-878
13.10.26HULIGANI – Yellow SubmarineHULIGANI2.4329lost-29-903
13.10.26Nemiga Gaming – Dawn BullsNemiga Gaming3.1326won+56-874
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStray Team1.8925won+22-929
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.4326lost-26-952
13.10.26CyberHero – Shadow DanceCyberHero1.9025won+23-925
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQThe WarriorsQ1.9526lost-26-948
13.10.26Gorgc Team – Nix TeamGorgc Team2.0325won+26-921
13.10.26Team Resilience – Cloud RisingTeam Resilience1.9524won+23-947
13.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Nix TeamNix Team1.9523won+22-970
13.10.26HULIGANI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0224lost-24-992
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Dawning1.9525lost-25-968
13.10.26Team Lynx – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity2.2127lost-27-943
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsThe WarriorsQ2.1128lost-28-916
12.10.26By_Owl Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.9627won+26-888
12.10.26ALOHADANCE Team – Gorgc TeamGorgc Team1.8928lost-28-913
12.10.26CyberHero – Team LynxCyberHero2.0130lost-30-885
12.10.26Nemiga Gaming – 111Nemiga Gaming2.5528won+43-855
12.10.26CyberHero – PuckChampPuckChamp2.2229lost-29-898
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.1231lost-31-869
11.10.26Hokori – New GrowthHokori2.0129won+30-839
10.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION1.9528won+26-868
10.10.26Team Yandex – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.9529lost-29-895
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingAurora Gaming1.9128won+25-865
09.10.26PARIVISION – 1w Team1w Team1.9229lost-29-891
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming2.1431lost-31-861
08.10.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION2.3233lost-33-830
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8931won+28-798
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w Team1w Team1.9133lost-33-825
08.10.26Team Synapse – BlasterbITeam Synapse1.9335lost-35-792
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming2.1336lost-36-758
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbICyberHero1.8938lost-38-721
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONLEGION1.9237won+34-683
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroMOUZ2.1939lost-39-717
07.10.26Yellow Submarine – BlasterbIBlasterbI2.2236won+44-678
06.10.26LEGION – MOUZMOUZ2.1938lost-38-723
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineTeam Synapse2.2036won+43-684
06.10.26BlasterbI – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.3638lost-38-728
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroHULIGANI2.0840lost-40-690
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming2.0342lost-42-650
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8944lost-44-607
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroCyberHero2.2347lost-47-563
05.10.26Team Synapse – HULIGANIHULIGANI2.1149lost-49-516
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Spirit2.0547won+49-467
03.10.261w Team – OG1w Team1.8945won+40-516
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamCake Team2.1942won+50-556
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.9244lost-44-606
03.10.26PARIVISION – Aurora GamingPARIVISION2.0442won+44-562
03.10.26Rostik Team – Cake TeamRostik Team1.9744lost-44-606
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.9043won+38-561
02.10.26GamerLegion – Team LiquidTeam Liquid2.0345lost-45-600
02.10.261w Team – Team Nemesis1w Team2.0343won+44-555
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.9241won+37-599
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.