Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-9910u
ROI
-27.4%
win rate
63%
bets
494
drawdown
884.6%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+15u
period 24top-up-417u
period 23top-up-493u
period 22top-up-655u
period 21top-up-435u
period 20top-up-177u
period 19top-up-426u
period 18profit withdrawn+70u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 494 | 63% | -1281 | -26.8% | 128.9% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 494 | 63% | -1321 | -26.7% | 132.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 494 | 63% | -2486 | -26.9% | 246.7% | Select |
| Martingale | 494 | 63% | -3265 | -28.3% | 335.9% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 494 | 63% | -5689 | -27% | 541.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 494 | 63% | -9910 | -27.4% | 884.6% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 186 | 9% | -10526 | -83.4% | 991% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 494, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 1.01 | 101 | won | +1 | -8910 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | PARIVISION | 1.06 | 101 | won | +6 | -8911 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Team Liquid | 1.03 | 100 | won | +3 | -8917 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | PlayTime | 1.01 | 100 | won | +1 | -8920 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | Vici Gaming | 2.15 | 90 | won | +103 | -8921 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 100 | lost | -100 | -9024 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 65 | lost | -65 | -8924 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 1.01 | 65 | won | +1 | -8860 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.01 | 65 | won | +1 | -8860 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Ilbirs eSports | 1.35 | 62 | won | +22 | -8861 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 13.00 | 69 | lost | -69 | -8883 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | Nigma Galaxy | 14.00 | 77 | lost | -77 | -8813 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Rostik Team | 10.00 | 86 | lost | -86 | -8736 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 95 | lost | -95 | -8651 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 3.60 | 106 | lost | -106 | -8555 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSports | Ilbirs eSports | 1.92 | 97 | won | +89 | -8450 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Zero Tenacity | 1.25 | 94 | won | +24 | -8539 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 1.04 | 94 | won | +4 | -8562 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.90 | 105 | lost | -105 | -8566 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 1.02 | 104 | won | +2 | -8462 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 104 | won | +1 | -8464 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 104 | won | +1 | -8465 |
| 08.07.26 | GamerLegion – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.20 | 102 | won | +20 | -8466 |
| 08.07.26 | Poor Rangers – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 1.01 | 102 | won | +1 | -8486 |
| 07.07.26 | Inner Circle – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.20 | 100 | won | +20 | -8487 |
| 28.06.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Yellow Submarine | Nigma Galaxy | 1.12 | 50 | won | +6 | -8507 |
| 28.06.26 | By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE Team | By_Owl Team | 1.04 | 50 | won | +2 | -8513 |
| 27.06.26 | Natus Vincere – L1ga Team | Natus Vincere | 2.25 | 55 | lost | -55 | -8515 |
| 25.06.26 | Team Spirit – Nigma Galaxy | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 55 | won | +1 | -8460 |
| 24.06.26 | Recrent Team – Stray Team | Recrent Team | 10.00 | 62 | lost | -62 | -8460 |
| 24.06.26 | Dread Team – DangerLyoha Team | Dread Team | 1.30 | 60 | won | +18 | -8399 |
| 21.06.26 | InterActive Philippines – Mentality Monster | Mentality Monster | 1.02 | 60 | won | +1 | -8417 |
| 21.06.26 | Grind Back – Carstensz Esports | Grind Back | 1.01 | 60 | won | +1 | -8418 |
| 19.06.26 | summer bear – Power Rangers | Power Rangers | 1.01 | 60 | won | +1 | -8418 |
| 17.06.26 | Power Rangers – Flame Esports | Power Rangers | 1.01 | 59 | won | +1 | -8419 |
| 16.06.26 | Flame Esports – Team Spirit Academy | Flame Esports | 4.20 | 66 | lost | -66 | -8420 |
| 13.06.26 | Estar Backs – Gior Dota Team | Gior Dota Team | 12.00 | 73 | lost | -73 | -8354 |
| 11.06.26 | Phenomenon – NA Last Hope | Phenomenon | 2.90 | 62 | won | +117 | -8280 |
| 11.06.26 | Team Nemesis – Gior Dota Team | Team Nemesis | 1.01 | 62 | won | +1 | -8397 |
| 10.06.26 | L1ga Team – Zero Tenacity | L1ga Team | 1.01 | 62 | won | +1 | -8398 |
| 07.06.26 | BETBOOM Team – LGD Gaming | BETBOOM Team | 2.25 | 68 | lost | -68 | -8399 |
| 06.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | Ramzes Club | 1.32 | 66 | won | +21 | -8330 |
| 05.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 74 | lost | -74 | -8351 |
| 05.06.26 | Execration – REKONIX | REKONIX | 1.08 | 73 | won | +6 | -8278 |
| 04.06.26 | Carstensz Esports – REKONIX | REKONIX | 1.02 | 73 | won | +1 | -8284 |
| 02.06.26 | L1ga Team – Poor Rangers | L1ga Team | 13.00 | 81 | lost | -81 | -8285 |
| 02.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 13.00 | 90 | lost | -90 | -8204 |
| 01.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | TpaBoMaH Club | 6.60 | 100 | lost | -100 | -8114 |
| 30.05.26 | Team Spirit – OG | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 34 | won | +0 | -8014 |
| 29.05.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | Team Yandex | 2.70 | 38 | lost | -38 | -8014 |
| 28.05.26 | NS Club – Ramzes Club | Ramzes Club | 1.12 | 38 | won | +5 | -7976 |
| 27.05.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.20 | 37 | won | +7 | -7981 |
| 27.05.26 | OG – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 37 | won | +0 | -7988 |
| 26.05.26 | PARIVISION – Team Yandex | PARIVISION | 15.00 | 41 | lost | -41 | -7988 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Falcons – LGD Gaming | Team Falcons | 1.17 | 40 | won | +7 | -7947 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 45 | lost | -45 | -7954 |
| 26.05.26 | GLYPH – LGD Gaming | GLYPH | 2.35 | 50 | lost | -50 | -7909 |
| 24.05.26 | Recrent Team – Solo Team | Solo Team | 1.01 | 50 | won | +0 | -7859 |
| 23.05.26 | Miposhka Team – Stray Team | Miposhka Team | 10.00 | 55 | lost | -55 | -7860 |
| 22.05.26 | Aurora Gaming – Tundra Esports | Aurora Gaming | 1.03 | 55 | won | +2 | -7804 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.