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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-16615u
ROI
-29.5%
win rate
62%
bets
4993
drawdown
1623.2%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

2% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-547u
period 24top-up-437u
period 23top-up-645u
period 22top-up-795u
period 21top-up-754u
period 20top-up-628u
period 19top-up-763u
period 18top-up-765u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale26758%-1651-28.9%164.3%Select
1% of bankroll499362%-10733-29.2%1061.1%Select
Flat (10 units)499362%-14358-28.8%1419.1%Select
2% of bankroll499362%-16615-29.5%1623.2%Selected
5% of bankroll499362%-22903-29.9%2160.5%Select
10% of bankroll499362%-24558-29.5%2191.9%Select
Quarter Kelly19368%-24608-81.8%2389.3%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 4993, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.909lost-9-15615
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.029won+0-15606
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION1.019won+0-15606
20.08.261w Team – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.019won+0-15607
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.019won+0-15607
16.08.26GamerLegion – 1w Team1w Team1.019won+0-15607
16.08.26Team Spirit – Team ResilienceTeam Spirit1.019won+0-15607
16.08.26Aurora Gaming – BETBOOM TeamAurora Gaming9.009lost-9-15607
16.08.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingTeam Falcons1.019won+0-15597
15.08.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyTeam Spirit4.8010lost-10-15598
15.08.261w Team – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.8510lost-10-15588
15.08.26Team Liquid – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming6.0010lost-10-15578
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.4510won+4-15568
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.0010lost-10-15573
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Vici GamingLGD Gaming1.0110won+0-15562
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.0010lost-10-15563
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION1.0110won+0-15552
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.0110won+0-15552
15.08.261w Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1510won+2-15552
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.0110won+0-15554
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.0210won+0-15554
15.08.26Team Resilience – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0110won+0-15554
15.08.26OG – L1ga TeamOG1.0110won+0-15554
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionTeam Falcons1.0110won+0-15555
14.08.26Team Yandex – Aurora GamingTeam Yandex5.3010lost-10-15555
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – L1ga TeamXtreme Gaming1.0110won+0-15544
14.08.26Team Spirit – Team LiquidTeam Liquid11.0011lost-11-15544
14.08.26GamerLegion – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0411won+0-15534
14.08.26Team Resilience – OGOG3.4011lost-11-15534
14.08.261w Team – Team FalconsTeam Falcons6.6011lost-11-15523
14.08.26BETBOOM Team – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.0511won+1-15512
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.0111won+0-15513
14.08.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming4.2011lost-11-15513
14.08.26L1ga Team – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.2211won+2-15501
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionXtreme Gaming15.0012lost-12-15504
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Yandex4.8012lost-12-15492
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.9812won+11-15481
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.1212won+1-15492
13.08.26Team Resilience – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.0611won+1-15493
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – 1w TeamBETBOOM Team1.2011won+2-15494
13.08.26Team Yandex – L1ga TeamTeam Yandex1.0111won+0-15496
13.08.26Team Spirit – Xtreme GamingTeam Spirit1.0111won+0-15496
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.0211won+0-15496
13.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.0111won+0-15497
13.08.261w Team – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy15.0012lost-12-15497
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – OGBETBOOM Team1.3512won+4-15485
13.08.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingTeam Falcons1.2012won+2-15489
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.0612won+1-15491
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.0012lost-12-15492
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.0012lost-12-15480
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.0012lost-12-15468
11.08.26Level UP – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy5.3012lost-12-15456
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.0013lost-13-15444
11.08.26Team Spirit Academy – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0013lost-13-15431
11.08.26Level UP – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.0313won+0-15418
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.0113won+0-15418
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0013lost-13-15418
10.08.26Yellow Submarine – Level UPYellow Submarine14.0014lost-14-15405
10.08.26Team Lynx – Rune Eaters AriseRune Eaters Arise1.0114won+0-15392
10.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0114won+0-15392
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.