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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-1302u
ROI
-27.3%
win rate
63%
bets
494
drawdown
131.5%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

1% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+2u
period 24top-up-49u
period 23top-up-60u
period 22top-up-95u
period 21top-up-50u
period 20top-up-18u
period 19top-up-51u
period 18profit withdrawn+11u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll49463%-1302-27.3%131.5%Select
Flat (10 units)49463%-1345-27.2%135.8%Select
2% of bankroll49463%-2522-27.3%254.7%Select
Martingale49463%-3288-28.5%341.8%Select
5% of bankroll49463%-5747-27.5%580.7%Select
10% of bankroll49463%-9957-27.9%1007.1%Select
Quarter Kelly1858%-10555-85.1%1060.7%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 494, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.0110won+0-302
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.0610won+1-302
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.0310won+0-303
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimePlayTime1.0110won+0-303
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1510won+11-303
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2010lost-10-315
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0010lost-10-305
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0110won+0-295
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0110won+0-295
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingIlbirs eSports1.3510won+3-295
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0010lost-10-298
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0010lost-10-289
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0010lost-10-279
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0010lost-10-269
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6010lost-10-259
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports1.9210won+9-249
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingZero Tenacity1.2510won+2-258
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.0410won+0-261
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.9010lost-10-261
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.0210won+0-251
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.0110won+0-251
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleTeam Yandex1.0110won+0-251
08.07.26GamerLegion – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.2010won+2-252
08.07.26Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.0110won+0-254
07.07.26Inner Circle – 1w Team1w Team1.2010won+2-254
28.06.26Nigma Galaxy – Yellow SubmarineNigma Galaxy1.129won+1-256
28.06.26By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE TeamBy_Owl Team1.049won+0-257
27.06.26Natus Vincere – L1ga TeamNatus Vincere2.259lost-9-257
25.06.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyTeam Spirit1.019won+0-248
24.06.26Recrent Team – Stray TeamRecrent Team10.0010lost-10-248
24.06.26Dread Team – DangerLyoha TeamDread Team1.3010won+3-238
21.06.26InterActive Philippines – Mentality MonsterMentality Monster1.0210won+0-241
21.06.26Grind Back – Carstensz EsportsGrind Back1.0110won+0-241
19.06.26summer bear – Power RangersPower Rangers1.0110won+0-241
17.06.26Power Rangers – Flame EsportsPower Rangers1.0110won+0-241
16.06.26Flame Esports – Team Spirit AcademyFlame Esports4.2010lost-10-242
13.06.26Estar Backs – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0010lost-10-232
11.06.26Phenomenon – NA Last HopePhenomenon2.9010won+18-222
11.06.26Team Nemesis – Gior Dota TeamTeam Nemesis1.0110won+0-240
10.06.26L1ga Team – Zero TenacityL1ga Team1.0110won+0-240
07.06.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingBETBOOM Team2.2510lost-10-241
06.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubRamzes Club1.3210won+3-231
05.06.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid15.0010lost-10-234
05.06.26Execration – REKONIXREKONIX1.0810won+1-224
04.06.26Carstensz Esports – REKONIXREKONIX1.0210won+0-225
02.06.26L1ga Team – Poor RangersL1ga Team13.0010lost-10-225
02.06.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere13.0010lost-10-215
01.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club6.6010lost-10-205
30.05.26Team Spirit – OGTeam Spirit1.019won+0-195
29.05.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex2.709lost-9-196
28.05.26NS Club – Ramzes ClubRamzes Club1.129won+1-186
27.05.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.209won+2-188
27.05.26OG – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.019won+0-189
26.05.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION15.009lost-9-189
26.05.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingTeam Falcons1.179won+2-180
26.05.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.009lost-9-182
26.05.26GLYPH – LGD GamingGLYPH2.359lost-9-173
24.05.26Recrent Team – Solo TeamSolo Team1.019won+0-163
23.05.26Miposhka Team – Stray TeamMiposhka Team10.009lost-9-163
22.05.26Aurora Gaming – Tundra EsportsAurora Gaming1.039won+0-154
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.