Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit

+1057u

ROI

+24.4%

win rate

72%

bets

drawdown

17%

payouts

Balance by period

Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.

working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up

Strategy rules

gps_fixed

What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments

Stake size

5% of bankroll

restart_alt

Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights

Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups

period 3profit withdrawn+84u

period 2profit withdrawn+561u

period 1profit withdrawn+412u

Stake sizes

Stake	Bets	Hit	Profit	ROI	Drawdown	Pick
10% of bankroll	69	72%	+2366	+21.7%	26.5%	Select
5% of bankroll	69	72%	+1057	+24.4%	17%	Selected
2% of bankroll	69	72%	+392	+26%	8.6%	Select
Martingale	69	72%	+295	+26.8%	5.9%	Select
1% of bankroll	69	72%	+191	+26.5%	4.8%	Select
Flat (10 units)	69	72%	+186	+27%	4.5%	Select
Quarter Kelly	0	0%	+0	+0%	0%	Select

Bet-by-bet match log

Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 69, showing the last 60.

All Random 50%Random 25%Random 10%

Date	Match	Bet on	Odds	Stake	Result	±Bank	Bank
14.10.26	Team Resilience – Yakult Brothers	Team Resilience	1.61	53	won	+32	2057
13.10.26	Nemiga Gaming – Dawn Bulls	Dawn Bulls	1.35	55	lost	-55	2025
13.10.26	Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ	Power Rangers	1.82	53	won	+44	2080
13.10.26	Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy	Dawn Bulls	1.54	52	won	+28	2036
13.10.26	Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning	Cloud Rising	1.82	50	won	+41	2008
12.10.26	The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls	Dawn Bulls	1.70	48	won	+34	1967
11.10.26	Team Spirit – PARIVISION	Team Spirit	1.70	46	won	+33	1933
09.10.26	Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming	LGD Gaming	1.87	49	lost	-49	1901
09.10.26	Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming	Team Spirit	1.68	47	won	+32	1950
08.10.26	Team Yandex – LGD Gaming	Team Yandex	1.69	46	won	+32	1917
06.10.26	HULIGANI – CyberHero	CyberHero	1.72	44	won	+32	1886
03.10.26	Team Spirit – Team Yandex	Team Yandex	1.75	46	lost	-46	1854
03.10.26	Daxak Team – Cake Team	Daxak Team	1.66	49	lost	-49	1900
03.10.26	LGD Gaming – GamerLegion	LGD Gaming	1.86	47	won	+40	1949
02.10.26	1w Team – Team Nemesis	Team Nemesis	1.76	49	lost	-49	1909
02.10.26	LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming	Xtreme Gaming	1.85	52	lost	-52	1958
01.10.26	Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid	Aurora Gaming	1.74	50	won	+37	2010
30.09.26	PARIVISION – LGD Gaming	LGD Gaming	1.74	82	lost	-82	1973
30.09.26	BETBOOM TEAM – OG	OG	1.88	86	lost	-86	2055
29.09.26	1w Team – Natus Vincere	Natus Vincere	1.43	91	lost	-91	2142
27.09.26	avice Team – Cake Team	Cake Team	1.82	87	won	+72	2233
27.09.26	LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere	Natus Vincere	1.53	85	won	+45	2161
26.09.26	Rostik Team – avice Team	Rostik Team	1.86	82	won	+70	2115
25.09.26	Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine	Yellow Submarine	1.54	86	lost	-86	2045
25.09.26	Solo Team – avice Team	avice Team	1.82	83	won	+68	2131
25.09.26	Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere	Natus Vincere	1.64	80	won	+52	2064
24.09.26	TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team	TpaBoMaH Team	1.88	77	won	+67	2012
24.09.26	Team Yandex – 1w Team	Team Yandex	1.82	74	won	+60	1945
24.09.26	Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx	Yellow Submarine	1.81	71	won	+57	1884
24.09.26	Two Move – Team Lynx	Team Lynx	1.79	68	won	+54	1827
24.09.26	Daxak Team – gpK~ Team	Daxak Team	1.50	66	won	+33	1773
24.09.26	YBN Team – Rostik Team	Rostik Team	1.72	64	won	+46	1740
22.09.26	Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming	Team Spirit Academy	1.58	67	lost	-67	1694
22.09.26	avice Team – Daxak Team	Daxak Team	1.66	65	won	+43	1762
22.09.26	Natus Vincere – 1w Team	Natus Vincere	1.57	64	won	+36	1718
22.09.26	Conventus Stellarum – Yakult Brothers	Yakult Brothers	1.83	67	lost	-67	1682
21.09.26	YBN Team – NS Team	YBN Team	1.83	70	lost	-70	1749
21.09.26	Two Move – Zero Tenacity	Zero Tenacity	1.87	74	lost	-74	1820
21.09.26	Team Nemesis – MOUZ	Team Nemesis	1.64	72	won	+46	1894
21.09.26	Nemiga Gaming – Kalmychata	Kalmychata	1.55	70	won	+38	1848
21.09.26	Aurora Gaming – Team Cobra	Aurora Gaming	1.87	67	won	+58	1809
20.09.26	Inner Circle – Yellow Submarine	Yellow Submarine	1.65	65	won	+42	1751
20.09.26	PlayTime – Team Cobra	Team Cobra	1.89	62	won	+55	1709
20.09.26	Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme Gaming	Conventus Stellarum	1.89	65	lost	-65	1654
19.09.26	LGD Gaming – Yakult Brothers	Yakult Brothers	1.82	69	lost	-69	1719
18.09.26	uralan – Two Move	Two Move	1.89	66	won	+58	1788
18.09.26	Team Spirit Academy – Yellow Submarine	Yellow Submarine	1.79	63	won	+50	1730
17.09.26	Kalmychata – uralan	uralan	1.82	67	lost	-67	1680
17.09.26	Nemiga Gaming – Team Lynx	Team Lynx	1.62	65	won	+40	1746
16.09.26	Inner Circle – uralan	uralan	1.87	62	won	+54	1706
13.09.26	Recrent Team – Stariy_Bog Club	Stariy_Bog Club	1.77	60	won	+46	1652
12.09.26	Team Nemesis – InterActive Philippines	Team Nemesis	1.82	57	won	+47	1606
10.09.26	GamerLegion – Klim Sani4	Klim Sani4	1.63	56	won	+35	1559
09.09.26	Klim Sani4 – Inner Circle	Klim Sani4	1.74	54	won	+40	1524
09.09.26	Natus Vincere – GamerLegion	Natus Vincere	1.82	51	won	+42	1484
08.09.26	MOUZ – GamerLegion	GamerLegion	1.82	49	won	+41	1442
07.09.26	GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4	Pipsqueak+4	1.81	52	lost	-52	1401
01.09.26	Zero Tenacity – Team Spirit Academy	Zero Tenacity	1.83	50	won	+41	1453
30.08.26	Natus Vincere – MOUZ	MOUZ	1.88	74	lost	-74	1412
29.08.26	Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy	Klim Sani4	1.77	72	won	+55	1486

Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.

This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓