?

Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-12537u
ROI
-29.8%
win rate
62%
bets
1259
drawdown
1253.9%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

5% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-260u
period 24top-up-394u
period 23top-up-555u
period 22top-up-693u
period 21top-up-656u
period 20top-up-125u
period 19top-up-744u
period 18top-up-546u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll125962%-3333-28.8%333.3%Select
Flat (10 units)125962%-3598-28.6%359.9%Select
Martingale93461%-5999-29.4%599.9%Select
2% of bankroll125962%-6187-29.1%618.8%Select
5% of bankroll125962%-12537-29.8%1253.9%Selected
10% of bankroll125962%-18427-31.1%1842.9%Select
Quarter Kelly4918%-18886-86.5%1888.6%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1259, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0237won+1-11537
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION1.0137won+0-11538
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0137won+0-11538
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.0039lost-39-11539
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION1.0139won+0-11500
15.08.261w Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1539won+6-11500
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.0139won+0-11506
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionTeam Falcons1.0139won+0-11506
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.0238won+1-11507
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.0638won+2-11507
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.0040lost-40-11510
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0043lost-43-11469
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkIlbirs eSports13.0045lost-45-11427
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkZero Tenacity1.0245won+1-11382
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPNo Hoodwink1.6047lost-47-11383
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w TeamTeam Liquid1.2247won+10-11336
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersYakult Brothers1.0346won+1-11346
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.0346won+1-11347
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6049lost-49-11349
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.3051lost-51-11300
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimePlayTime1.0151won+1-11249
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingTeam Liquid2.5048won+72-11249
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1545won+52-11321
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0048lost-48-11373
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2050lost-50-11325
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceTeam avice1.0150won+1-11275
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.0350won+2-11276
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0032lost-32-11277
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0132won+0-11245
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.5034lost-34-11246
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming2.0032won+32-11212
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0132won+0-11244
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingIlbirs eSports1.3531won+11-11244
30.07.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingTeam Falcons1.0131won+0-11255
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0033lost-33-11256
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0035lost-35-11222
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0037lost-37-11188
29.07.26NS Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.0237won+1-11151
28.07.26YBN Team – Team aviceYBN Team13.0039lost-39-11152
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0041lost-41-11113
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6043lost-43-11073
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Level UPNemiga Gaming7.5045lost-45-11030
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports1.9243won+39-10985
21.07.26Team Lynx – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Lynx1.5245lost-45-11025
20.07.26Level UP – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports10.0048lost-48-10980
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingZero Tenacity1.2547won+12-10932
20.07.26Team Lynx – PuckChampTeam Lynx10.0049lost-49-10944
19.07.26Vici Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0149won+0-10894
18.07.26Team Yandex – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.1249won+6-10895
18.07.26BETBOOM Team – Vici GamingBETBOOM Team1.0349won+1-10901
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.0449won+2-10902
14.07.26Team Liquid – Xtreme GamingTeam Liquid1.0149won+0-10904
12.07.261w Team – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0849won+4-10905
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.9051lost-51-10908
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.0251won+1-10857
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.0151won+1-10858
10.07.26Team Nemesis – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0251won+1-10859
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleTeam Yandex1.0151won+1-10860
08.07.26Vici Gaming – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.0151won+1-10860
08.07.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Spirit1.0151won+1-10861
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.