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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-7380u
ROI
-29%
win rate
62%
bets
2542
drawdown
738.1%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-143u
period 24top-up-87u
period 23top-up-235u
period 22top-up-494u
period 21top-up-395u
period 20top-up-157u
period 19top-up-380u
period 18top-up-420u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale25160%-2203-37.6%220.3%Select
1% of bankroll254262%-6319-29.3%631.9%Select
Flat (10 units)254262%-7380-29%738.1%Select
2% of bankroll254262%-10924-29.6%1092.5%Select
5% of bankroll254262%-18634-30.2%1863.5%Select
10% of bankroll254262%-22950-30.9%2295.1%Select
Quarter Kelly9828%-23176-86.3%2317.6%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2542, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0210won+0-6380
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION1.0110won+0-6380
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0110won+0-6381
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.0010lost-10-6381
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.0010lost-10-6371
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION1.0110won+0-6361
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.0110won+0-6361
15.08.261w Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1510won+1-6361
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.0110won+0-6362
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.0210won+0-6362
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionTeam Falcons1.0110won+0-6363
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.0110won+0-6363
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionXtreme Gaming15.0010lost-10-6363
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.9810won+10-6353
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.1210won+1-6363
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.0210won+0-6364
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.0610won+1-6364
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.0010lost-10-6365
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.0010lost-10-6355
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.0010lost-10-6345
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.0010lost-10-6335
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.0110won+0-6325
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0010lost-10-6325
08.08.26Power Rangers – Team SyntaxPower Rangers1.0110won+0-6315
07.08.26Team Jenz – Nemiga GamingTeam Jenz14.0010lost-10-6315
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkZero Tenacity1.0210won+0-6305
06.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Power RangersPower Rangers1.0810won+1-6305
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPNo Hoodwink1.6010lost-10-6306
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w TeamTeam Liquid1.2210won+2-6296
05.08.26PlayTime – Yakult BrothersPlayTime1.0110won+0-6298
05.08.261w Team – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team13.0010lost-10-6298
04.08.26Team Liquid – Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.0110won+0-6288
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersYakult Brothers1.0310won+0-6288
04.08.26PlayTime – Team ResiliencePlayTime1.0610won+1-6289
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.0310won+0-6289
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6010lost-10-6289
03.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG1.0110won+0-6279
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.3010lost-10-6280
03.08.26LGD Gaming – 1w TeamLGD Gaming15.0010lost-10-6270
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimePlayTime1.0110won+0-6260
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingTeam Liquid2.5010won+15-6260
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1510won+12-6275
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0010lost-10-6286
02.08.26Team Falcons – 1w TeamTeam Falcons1.0810won+1-6276
02.08.26Yellow Submarine – Team ResilienceYellow Submarine14.0010lost-10-6277
01.08.26Stray Team – TpaBoMaH TeamStray Team13.0010lost-10-6267
01.08.26GLYPH – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity6.0010lost-10-6257
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2010lost-10-6247
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – GamerLegionBETBOOM Team1.0110won+0-6237
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceTeam avice1.0110won+0-6237
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingBETBOOM Team1.0110won+0-6237
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.0310won+0-6237
31.07.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.9210lost-10-6238
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0010lost-10-6228
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0110won+0-6218
31.07.26Enjoy Boys – GLYPHGLYPH1.0110won+0-6218
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.5010lost-10-6218
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming2.0010won+10-6208
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0110won+0-6218
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingIlbirs eSports1.3510won+4-6218
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.