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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
+655u
ROI
+10.5%
win rate
63%
bets
129
drawdown
23.8%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

5% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+114u
period 2profit withdrawn+6u
period 1profit withdrawn+535u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll12963%+1311+11.1%32.4%Selected
5% of bankroll12963%+655+10.5%23.8%Select
2% of bankroll12963%+264+10.4%12.2%Select
Martingale12963%+144+4.5%55.1%Select
Flat (10 units)12963%+132+10.3%6.6%Select
1% of bankroll12963%+132+10.3%6.7%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 129, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Team Resilience – Yakult BrothersTeam Resilience1.6154won+331655
14.10.26zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE Teamzxcursed Team1.8857lost-571622
14.10.26Nemiga Gaming – KalmychataKalmychata1.5355won+301679
13.10.26Stray Team – Stariy_bog TeamStariy_bog Team1.8858lost-581650
13.10.26Power Rangers – The WarriorsQPower Rangers1.8256won+461708
13.10.26Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit AcademyDawn Bulls1.5455won+291662
13.10.26Cloud Rising – Cloud DawningCloud Rising1.8252won+431632
12.10.26The WarriorsQ – Dawn BullsDawn Bulls1.7051won+361589
11.10.26Team Spirit – PARIVISIONTeam Spirit1.7049won+341554
09.10.26Aurora Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.8751lost-511519
09.10.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingTeam Spirit1.6850won+341571
08.10.26LEGION – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8852lost-521537
08.10.26Aurora Gaming – 1w TeamAurora Gaming1.8650won+431589
08.10.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex1.6949won+341546
07.10.26CyberHero – BlasterbIBlasterbI1.8946won+411512
07.10.26Team Synapse – LEGIONTeam Synapse1.8549lost-491471
07.10.26MOUZ – CyberHeroCyberHero1.6647won+311520
06.10.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.6550lost-501489
06.10.26HULIGANI – CyberHeroCyberHero1.7248won+351538
05.10.26MOUZ – Nemiga GamingMOUZ1.7746won+351504
05.10.26LEGION – BlasterbILEGION1.8944won+391468
05.10.26Yellow Submarine – CyberHeroYellow Submarine1.6343won+271429
03.10.26Team Spirit – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.7545lost-451401
03.10.26Daxak Team – Cake TeamDaxak Team1.6648lost-481447
03.10.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming1.8646won+391494
02.10.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGBETBOOM TEAM1.8748lost-481455
02.10.261w Team – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis1.7651lost-511503
02.10.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.8553lost-531554
01.10.26Aurora Gaming – Team LiquidAurora Gaming1.7451won+381607
01.10.26Team Yandex – BETBOOM TEAMTeam Yandex1.5650won+281569
30.09.26PARIVISION – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.7453lost-531541
30.09.26Team Yandex – MOUZTeam Yandex1.4652won+241594
30.09.26BETBOOM TEAM – OGOG1.8854lost-541571
29.09.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.8752won+461625
29.09.261w Team – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.4355lost-551579
29.09.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Spirit1.7553won+401634
27.09.26YBN Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.6951won+351595
27.09.26Daxak Team – Rostik TeamDaxak Team1.6350won+311559
27.09.26Stray Team – YBN TeamStray Team1.7452lost-521528
27.09.26avice Team – Cake TeamCake Team1.8250won+411580
27.09.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.5349won+261539
26.09.26Rostik Team – avice TeamRostik Team1.8647won+401513
25.09.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingXtreme Gaming1.7849lost-491473
25.09.26Team Synapse – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine1.5452lost-521522
25.09.26Solo Team – avice Teamavice Team1.8250won+411574
25.09.26GamerLegion – 1w TeamGamerLegion1.8348won+401533
25.09.26Team Nemesis – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.6446won+301493
24.09.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.8844won+391463
24.09.26Team Yandex – 1w TeamTeam Yandex1.8243won+351424
24.09.26Yellow Submarine – Team LynxYellow Submarine1.8141won+331389
24.09.26Two Move – Team LynxTeam Lynx1.7939won+311356
24.09.26Daxak Team – gpK~ TeamDaxak Team1.5039won+191325
24.09.26Natus Vincere – LGD GamingNatus Vincere1.5341lost-411306
24.09.26YBN Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team1.7239won+281346
23.09.26Stray Team – NS TeamStray Team1.7838won+291318
23.09.26Team Nemesis – Conventus StellarumTeam Nemesis1.7436won+271289
22.09.26LGD Gaming – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.8735won+301262
22.09.26Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga GamingTeam Spirit Academy1.5837lost-371232
22.09.26avice Team – Daxak TeamDaxak Team1.6635won+241268
22.09.26MOUZ – HokoriHokori1.7837lost-371245
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.