Value: edge ≥ 5%
Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.
profit
-19975u
ROI
-88.7%
win rate
4%
bets
2449
drawdown
1997.5%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Value: edge ≥ 5%
💰
Stake size
2% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-636u
period 24top-up-635u
period 23top-up-785u
period 22top-up-924u
period 21top-up-849u
period 20top-up-834u
period 19top-up-842u
period 18top-up-919u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1000 | -100% | 100% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 517 | 5% | -4366 | -84.5% | 436.6% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 2449 | 4% | -14137 | -88.3% | 1413.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2449 | 4% | -19975 | -88.7% | 1997.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2449 | 4% | -24208 | -89.6% | 2420.8% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 2449 | 4% | -24819 | -91.3% | 2481.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2449 | 4% | -24864 | -90% | 2486.4% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2449, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -18975 |
| 20.08.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -18967 |
| 16.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Yandex | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -18960 |
| 15.08.26 | OG – GamerLegion | OG | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -18952 |
| 15.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 11.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -18944 |
| 15.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 14.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -18936 |
| 15.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – Aurora Gaming | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -18928 |
| 15.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Liquid | 1w Team | 5.30 | 9 | lost | -9 | -18920 |
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -18911 |
| 15.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -18902 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -18893 |
| 14.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Nigma Galaxy | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -18884 |
| 14.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegion | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -18875 |
| 13.08.26 | Team Falcons – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 1.98 | 9 | won | +9 | -18866 |
| 13.08.26 | OG – Nigma Galaxy | OG | 5.80 | 9 | lost | -9 | -18875 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -18865 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -18856 |
| 12.08.26 | Level UP – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 4.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -18846 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -18836 |
| 11.08.26 | Yellow Submarine – Zero Tenacity | Yellow Submarine | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -18825 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters – MOUZ | MOUZ | 15.00 | 11 | lost | -11 | -18815 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters – Natus Vincere | Rune Eaters | 15.00 | 11 | lost | -11 | -18804 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – No Hoodwink | Rune Eaters Arise | 12.00 | 11 | lost | -11 | -18793 |
| 08.08.26 | Power Rangers – Team Syntax | Team Syntax | 12.00 | 11 | lost | -11 | -18782 |
| 07.08.26 | Team Jenz – Nemiga Gaming | Team Jenz | 14.00 | 12 | lost | -12 | -18771 |
| 07.08.26 | Zero Tenacity – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 13.00 | 12 | lost | -12 | -18759 |
| 06.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Power Rangers | Ilbirs eSports | 6.60 | 12 | lost | -12 | -18747 |
| 06.08.26 | No Hoodwink – Level UP | No Hoodwink | 1.60 | 12 | lost | -12 | -18735 |
| 05.08.26 | Team Liquid – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 13 | lost | -13 | -18723 |
| 05.08.26 | PlayTime – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 15.00 | 13 | lost | -13 | -18710 |
| 05.08.26 | 1w Team – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 13.00 | 13 | lost | -13 | -18698 |
| 04.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Falcons | Team Liquid | 13.00 | 13 | lost | -13 | -18684 |
| 04.08.26 | Yakult Brothers – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 12.00 | 14 | lost | -14 | -18671 |
| 04.08.26 | PlayTime – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 13.00 | 14 | lost | -14 | -18658 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 14 | lost | -14 | -18644 |
| 03.08.26 | Vici Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Vici Gaming | 3.60 | 14 | lost | -14 | -18629 |
| 03.08.26 | OG – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 15 | lost | -15 | -18615 |
| 03.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 3.30 | 15 | lost | -15 | -18600 |
| 03.08.26 | LGD Gaming – 1w Team | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 15 | lost | -15 | -18585 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 16 | lost | -16 | -18570 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 5.00 | 16 | lost | -16 | -18554 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 16 | lost | -16 | -18538 |
| 02.08.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 17 | lost | -17 | -18522 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Falcons – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 17 | lost | -17 | -18505 |
| 02.08.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Resilience | Yellow Submarine | 14.00 | 17 | lost | -17 | -18488 |
| 01.08.26 | Stray Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 18 | lost | -18 | -18471 |
| 01.08.26 | GLYPH – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 6.00 | 18 | lost | -18 | -18453 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 18 | lost | -18 | -18435 |
| 01.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -18416 |
| 01.08.26 | Daxak Team – Team avice | Daxak Team | 11.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -18398 |
| 01.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 14.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -18378 |
| 01.08.26 | Midas Club – Team Resilience | Midas Club | 14.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -18359 |
| 31.07.26 | Xtreme Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 7 | lost | -7 | -18339 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -18331 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -18324 |
| 31.07.26 | Enjoy Boys – GLYPH | Enjoy Boys | 14.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -18316 |
| 31.07.26 | L1ga Team – REKONIX | L1ga Team | 8.50 | 8 | lost | -8 | -18308 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 7.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -18300 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -18292 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -18283 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.