Value: edge ≥ 5%
Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.
profit
-23502u
ROI
-88.3%
win rate
4%
bets
4833
drawdown
2340.1%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Value: edge ≥ 5%
💰
Stake size
2% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-899u
period 24top-up-864u
period 23top-up-956u
period 22top-up-988u
period 21top-up-973u
period 20top-up-956u
period 19top-up-986u
period 18top-up-991u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 9 | 11% | -1000 | -95.7% | 100% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 154 | 3% | -1318 | -85.8% | 131.7% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2819 | 4% | -14965 | -89.7% | 1479.3% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 4833 | 4% | -19792 | -88% | 1974.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 4833 | 4% | -23502 | -88.3% | 2340.1% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 4833 | 4% | -24787 | -88.9% | 2456.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 4833 | 4% | -24965 | -90.9% | 2496.5% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 4833, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 2 | lost | -2 | -22502 |
| 20.08.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 2 | lost | -2 | -22500 |
| 20.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Spirit | 1w Team | 15.00 | 2 | lost | -2 | -22498 |
| 16.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Yandex | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 2 | lost | -2 | -22496 |
| 16.08.26 | GamerLegion – 1w Team | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 2 | lost | -2 | -22493 |
| 16.08.26 | Team Spirit – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 14.00 | 2 | lost | -2 | -22491 |
| 16.08.26 | Aurora Gaming – BETBOOM Team | Aurora Gaming | 9.00 | 2 | lost | -2 | -22489 |
| 16.08.26 | Team Falcons – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 2 | lost | -2 | -22487 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Spirit – Nigma Galaxy | Team Spirit | 4.80 | 2 | lost | -2 | -22484 |
| 15.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.85 | 2 | lost | -2 | -22482 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Liquid – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 6.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22479 |
| 15.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Falcons | BETBOOM Team | 2.70 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22477 |
| 15.08.26 | OG – GamerLegion | OG | 15.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22474 |
| 15.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 14.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22472 |
| 15.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 11.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22469 |
| 15.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 14.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22466 |
| 15.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – Aurora Gaming | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22463 |
| 15.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Liquid | 1w Team | 5.30 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22460 |
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22458 |
| 15.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22455 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Resilience – Team Yandex | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22452 |
| 15.08.26 | OG – L1ga Team | L1ga Team | 15.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22448 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22445 |
| 14.08.26 | Team Yandex – Aurora Gaming | Team Yandex | 5.30 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22442 |
| 14.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – L1ga Team | L1ga Team | 15.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22439 |
| 14.08.26 | Team Spirit – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 11.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22435 |
| 14.08.26 | GamerLegion – Vici Gaming | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22432 |
| 14.08.26 | Team Resilience – OG | OG | 3.40 | 4 | lost | -4 | -22428 |
| 14.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Falcons | Team Falcons | 6.60 | 4 | lost | -4 | -22425 |
| 14.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – PARIVISION | BETBOOM Team | 9.00 | 4 | lost | -4 | -22421 |
| 14.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Nigma Galaxy | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 4 | lost | -4 | -22418 |
| 14.08.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 4.20 | 4 | lost | -4 | -22414 |
| 14.08.26 | L1ga Team – Vici Gaming | L1ga Team | 4.20 | 4 | lost | -4 | -22410 |
| 14.08.26 | Team Yandex – Team Liquid | Team Yandex | 4.80 | 4 | lost | -4 | -22406 |
| 14.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegion | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 4 | lost | -4 | -22402 |
| 13.08.26 | Team Falcons – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 1.98 | 4 | won | +4 | -22398 |
| 13.08.26 | OG – Nigma Galaxy | OG | 5.80 | 4 | lost | -4 | -22402 |
| 13.08.26 | Team Resilience – LGD Gaming | Team Resilience | 8.50 | 4 | lost | -4 | -22398 |
| 13.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – 1w Team | 1w Team | 4.40 | 4 | lost | -4 | -22393 |
| 13.08.26 | Team Yandex – L1ga Team | L1ga Team | 15.00 | 4 | lost | -4 | -22389 |
| 13.08.26 | Team Spirit – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 14.00 | 4 | lost | -4 | -22385 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 5 | lost | -5 | -22380 |
| 13.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 5 | lost | -5 | -22376 |
| 13.08.26 | 1w Team – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 15.00 | 5 | lost | -5 | -22371 |
| 13.08.26 | Team Falcons – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 4.50 | 5 | lost | -5 | -22366 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 5 | lost | -5 | -22362 |
| 12.08.26 | Level UP – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 4.00 | 5 | lost | -5 | -22357 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 15.00 | 5 | lost | -5 | -22352 |
| 11.08.26 | Yellow Submarine – Zero Tenacity | Yellow Submarine | 15.00 | 5 | lost | -5 | -22346 |
| 11.08.26 | Level UP – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 5.30 | 5 | lost | -5 | -22341 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters – MOUZ | MOUZ | 15.00 | 5 | lost | -5 | -22336 |
| 11.08.26 | Team Spirit Academy – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 13.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -22330 |
| 11.08.26 | Level UP – Natus Vincere | Level UP | 15.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -22325 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters – Natus Vincere | Rune Eaters | 15.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -22319 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – No Hoodwink | Rune Eaters Arise | 12.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -22313 |
| 10.08.26 | Yellow Submarine – Level UP | Yellow Submarine | 14.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -22307 |
| 10.08.26 | Team Lynx – Rune Eaters Arise | Team Lynx | 11.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -22301 |
| 10.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Zero Tenacity | Ilbirs eSports | 13.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -22295 |
| 10.08.26 | Power Rangers – MOUZ | Power Rangers | 7.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -22289 |
| 09.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – Ilbirs eSports | Rune Eaters Arise | 6.00 | 6 | won | +29 | -22283 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.