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Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

profit
-7196u
ROI
-90.3%
win rate
3%
bets
475
drawdown
719.6%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

💰
Stake size

2% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-114u
period 24top-up-305u
period 23top-up-334u
period 22top-up-367u
period 21top-up-335u
period 20top-up-291u
period 19top-up-261u
period 18top-up-283u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale70%-1070-100%107%Select
1% of bankroll4753%-3914-90%391.4%Select
Flat (10 units)4753%-4267-89.8%426.7%Select
2% of bankroll4753%-7196-90.3%719.6%Select
5% of bankroll4753%-14192-90.9%1419.2%Select
Quarter Kelly4753%-18471-94.4%1847.1%Select
10% of bankroll4753%-20079-92%2007.9%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 475, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0018lost-18-6196
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.0018lost-18-6178
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0019lost-19-6160
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0019lost-19-6141
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0020lost-20-6122
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2020lost-20-6102
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0014lost-14-6082
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0014lost-14-6068
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.0015lost-15-6054
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.0015lost-15-6039
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0015lost-15-6024
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0016lost-16-6008
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0016lost-16-5993
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0016lost-16-5977
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6017lost-17-5960
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming3.6017lost-17-5944
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.0017lost-17-5927
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.9018lost-18-5909
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8018lost-18-5891
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritREKONIX15.0018lost-18-5873
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleInner Circle15.0019lost-19-5855
08.07.26GamerLegion – Xtreme GamingGamerLegion15.0019lost-19-5836
08.07.26Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TeamPoor Rangers15.0020lost-20-5817
07.07.26Inner Circle – 1w TeamInner Circle15.0020lost-20-5797
28.06.26Nigma Galaxy – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine5.8014lost-14-5777
28.06.26By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE TeamALOHADANCE Team13.0014lost-14-5764
27.06.26Natus Vincere – L1ga TeamNatus Vincere2.2514lost-14-5750
25.06.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy12.0014lost-14-5736
24.06.26Recrent Team – Stray TeamRecrent Team10.0015lost-15-5721
24.06.26Dread Team – DangerLyoha TeamDangerLyoha Team3.2015lost-15-5707
21.06.26InterActive Philippines – Mentality MonsterInterActive Philippines10.0015lost-15-5692
21.06.26Grind Back – Carstensz EsportsCarstensz Esports13.0016lost-16-5676
19.06.26summer bear – Power Rangerssummer bear13.0016lost-16-5661
17.06.26Power Rangers – Flame EsportsFlame Esports12.0016lost-16-5645
16.06.26Flame Esports – Team Spirit AcademyFlame Esports4.2017lost-17-5628
13.06.26Estar Backs – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0017lost-17-5612
11.06.26Phenomenon – NA Last HopePhenomenon2.9016won+31-5595
11.06.26Team Nemesis – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0017lost-17-5626
10.06.26L1ga Team – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity11.0017lost-17-5609
07.06.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingBETBOOM Team2.2517lost-17-5592
06.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club3.1018lost-18-5575
05.06.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid15.0018lost-18-5557
05.06.26Execration – REKONIXExecration13.0018lost-18-5539
04.06.26Carstensz Esports – REKONIXCarstensz Esports12.0019lost-19-5520
02.06.26L1ga Team – Poor RangersL1ga Team13.0019lost-19-5502
02.06.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere13.0020lost-20-5482
01.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club6.6020lost-20-5463
30.05.26Team Spirit – OGOG15.0013lost-13-5443
29.05.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex2.7013lost-13-5430
28.05.26NS Club – Ramzes ClubNS Club5.3013lost-13-5417
27.05.26OG – Team YandexOG15.0014lost-14-5403
26.05.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION15.0014lost-14-5390
26.05.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0014lost-14-5376
26.05.26GLYPH – LGD GamingGLYPH2.3515lost-15-5361
24.05.26Recrent Team – Solo TeamRecrent Team12.0015lost-15-5347
23.05.26Miposhka Team – Stray TeamMiposhka Team10.0015lost-15-5332
22.05.26Aurora Gaming – Tundra EsportsTundra Esports11.0015lost-15-5317
17.05.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion8.5016lost-16-5301
16.05.26Aurora Gaming – Vici GamingAurora Gaming2.4015won+22-5285
16.05.26Tundra Esports – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.0016lost-16-5307
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.