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Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

profit
-23488u
ROI
-89.2%
win rate
3%
bets
4780
drawdown
2338.7%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

💰
Stake size

2% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-897u
period 24top-up-859u
period 23top-up-956u
period 22top-up-988u
period 21top-up-972u
period 20top-up-956u
period 19top-up-986u
period 18top-up-991u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale911%-1000-95.7%100%Select
Flat (10 units)1543%-1318-85.8%131.7%Selected
10% of bankroll27983%-14965-89.9%1479.3%Select
1% of bankroll47803%-19766-88.9%1972.2%Select
2% of bankroll47803%-23488-89.2%2338.7%Select
5% of bankroll47803%-24786-89.8%2456.5%Select
Quarter Kelly47803%-24965-91.3%2496.5%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 4780, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.002lost-2-22488
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.002lost-2-22486
20.08.261w Team – Team Spirit1w Team15.002lost-2-22484
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.002lost-2-22482
16.08.26GamerLegion – 1w TeamGamerLegion15.002lost-2-22479
16.08.26Team Spirit – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience14.002lost-2-22477
16.08.26Aurora Gaming – BETBOOM TeamAurora Gaming9.002lost-2-22475
16.08.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.002lost-2-22472
15.08.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyTeam Spirit4.802lost-2-22470
15.08.26Team Liquid – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming6.003lost-3-22467
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Team FalconsBETBOOM Team2.703lost-3-22465
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.003lost-3-22462
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming14.003lost-3-22460
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.003lost-3-22457
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.003lost-3-22454
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingBETBOOM Team15.003lost-3-22451
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.303lost-3-22449
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.003lost-3-22446
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.003lost-3-22443
15.08.26Team Resilience – Team YandexTeam Resilience15.003lost-3-22440
15.08.26OG – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.003lost-3-22437
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.003lost-3-22433
14.08.26Team Yandex – Aurora GamingTeam Yandex5.303lost-3-22430
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.003lost-3-22427
14.08.26Team Spirit – Team LiquidTeam Liquid11.003lost-3-22424
14.08.26GamerLegion – Vici GamingGamerLegion15.003lost-3-22420
14.08.26Team Resilience – OGOG3.404lost-4-22417
14.08.261w Team – Team FalconsTeam Falcons6.604lost-4-22413
14.08.26BETBOOM Team – PARIVISIONBETBOOM Team9.004lost-4-22409
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyLGD Gaming15.004lost-4-22406
14.08.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming4.204lost-4-22402
14.08.26L1ga Team – Vici GamingL1ga Team4.204lost-4-22398
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Yandex4.804lost-4-22394
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionXtreme Gaming15.004lost-4-22390
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyOG5.804lost-4-22386
13.08.26Team Resilience – LGD GamingTeam Resilience8.504lost-4-22382
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – 1w Team1w Team4.404lost-4-22377
13.08.26Team Yandex – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.004lost-4-22373
13.08.26Team Spirit – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming14.005lost-5-22369
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.005lost-5-22364
13.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.005lost-5-22359
13.08.261w Team – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy15.005lost-5-22355
13.08.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingLGD Gaming4.505lost-5-22350
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.005lost-5-22345
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.005lost-5-22340
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.005lost-5-22335
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.005lost-5-22329
11.08.26Level UP – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy5.305lost-5-22324
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.006lost-6-22319
11.08.26Team Spirit Academy – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.006lost-6-22313
11.08.26Level UP – Natus VincereLevel UP15.006lost-6-22307
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereRune Eaters15.006lost-6-22302
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.006lost-6-22296
10.08.26Yellow Submarine – Level UPYellow Submarine14.006lost-6-22290
10.08.26Team Lynx – Rune Eaters AriseTeam Lynx11.006lost-6-22284
10.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Zero TenacityIlbirs eSports13.006lost-6-22277
10.08.26Power Rangers – MOUZPower Rangers7.007lost-7-22271
09.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – Ilbirs eSportsRune Eaters Arise6.006won+30-22264
09.08.26Zero Tenacity – Natus VincereZero Tenacity14.006lost-6-22294
09.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Rune EatersIlbirs eSports14.006lost-6-22288
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.