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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 1:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ASAKURAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 23 games
65%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Solo · 21 game
57%
Lion
Lion
lupsione · 19 games
58%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 19 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 14 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 14 games
43%
Muerta
Muerta
jesv · 13 games
38%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jesv · 12 games
42%

ASAKURA

Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
55%
Lich
Lichsignature
VaniLLl · 8 games
63%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Infernal · 8 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 7 games
57%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 7 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 7 games
86%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 7 games
43%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
496 picks · 647 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
473 picks · 404 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
464 picks · 589 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
455 picks · 563 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 514 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
424 picks · 793 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
414 picks · 934 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:22
9Pandas 63%ASAKURA 37%
The model gave 63% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 37:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightV-Tune
50% · 362 games37% · 95 games
Phantom Assassin7jesu
Phantom Assassin
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerlaise
52% · 128 games53% · 299 games
TimbersawVladikTheHtiviy
Timbersaw
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
52% · 185 games51% · 416 games
Tinyyoung G
Tiny
Pugna
PugnaSolo
55% · 142 games48% · 109 games
ZeusVaniLLl
Zeus
Tusk
Tusklupsione
50% · 162 games54% · 60 games
Shadow Shamanslimeyao
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed21:32
9Pandas 64%ASAKURA 36%
The model gave 64% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerV-Tune
55% · 151 game44% · 89 games
Phantom Assassin7jesu
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
Tinyerase
53% · 433 games49% · 281 game
Pangolieryoung G
Pangolier
Zeus
ZeusSolo
45% · 115 games45% · 142 games
MagnusVladikTheHtiviy
Magnus
Tidehunter
Tidehunterlaise
55% · 84 games53% · 220 games
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Shadow Demon
Riki
Rikilupsione
49% · 34 games50% · 85 games
Elder TitanVaniLLl
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction missed23:40
9Pandas 63%ASAKURA 37%
The model gave 63% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 44:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyV-Tune
55% · 390 games53% · 316 games
Gyrocopter7jesu
Gyrocopter
Viper
Vipererase
52% · 56 games47% · 168 games
Monkey Kingyoung G
Monkey King
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerlaise
50% · 73 games44% · 66 games
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
Tidehunter
Undying
UndyingSolo
46% · 47 games49% · 246 games
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Shadow Demon
Clockwerk
Clockwerklupsione
51% · 341 game51% · 111 games
Elder TitanVaniLLl
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 75%
Series resultASAKURA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3