FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
9Pandas
Tinysignature
erase · 23 games
Elder Titan
Solo · 21 game
Lion
lupsione · 19 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 19 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 14 games
Muerta
jesv · 13 games
Dark Willow
jesv · 12 games
ASAKURA
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
Lichsignature
VaniLLl · 8 games
Magnussignature
Infernal · 8 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
young G · 7 games
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 7 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 7 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
496 picks · 647 bans
Muerta
473 picks · 404 bans
Batrider
464 picks · 589 bans
Clockwerk
455 picks · 563 bans
Tiny
438 picks · 514 bans
Gyrocopter
424 picks · 793 bans
Magnus
414 picks · 934 bans
Lion
398 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:22
9Pandas 63%ASAKURA 37%
The model gave 63% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 37:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightV-Tune
Phantom Assassin7jesu
Dawnbreakerlaise
TimbersawVladikTheHtiviy
Ember Spiriterase
Tinyyoung G
PugnaSolo
ZeusVaniLLl
Tusklupsione
Shadow Shamanslimeyao
Game 2prediction missed21:32
9Pandas 64%ASAKURA 36%
The model gave 64% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerV-Tune
Phantom Assassin7jesu
Tinyerase
Pangolieryoung G
ZeusSolo
MagnusVladikTheHtiviy
Tidehunterlaise
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Rikilupsione
Elder TitanVaniLLl
Game 3prediction missed23:40
9Pandas 63%ASAKURA 37%
The model gave 63% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 44:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyV-Tune
Gyrocopter7jesu
Vipererase
Monkey Kingyoung G
Night Stalkerlaise
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
UndyingSolo
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Clockwerklupsione
Elder TitanVaniLLl
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 75%
Series resultASAKURA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3