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European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 11 games
82%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 10 games
20%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
laise · 9 games
56%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 9 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
yamich · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 8 games
38%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 8 games
63%

MOUZ

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 26 games
31%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 24 games
42%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 24 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 23 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 21 game
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
bengan · 21 game
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 20 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
467 picks · 573 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
441 picks · 527 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 571 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
370 picks · 405 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
365 picks · 276 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
364 picks · 181 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
334 picks · 719 bans
52%
Invoker
Invoker
322 picks · 922 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:26
9Pandas 41%MOUZ 59%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Snipererase
56% · 89 games42% · 172 games
TerrorbladeUlnit
Terrorblade
Morphling
MorphlingDarkLord^
51% · 225 games49% · 213 games
InvokerMaTson
Invoker
Doom
Doomlaise
50% · 214 games50% · 357 games
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
Centaur Warrunner
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSolo
55% · 271 game45% · 183 games
MuertaThiolicor
Muerta
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonjesv
50% · 235 games52% · 109 games
Ogre MagiFly
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct30:40
9Pandas 41%MOUZ 59%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 41:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDarkLord^
52% · 218 games40% · 145 games
LinaMaTson
Lina
Doom
Doomlaise
60% · 210 games54% · 28 games
SpectreUlnit
Spectre
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
54% · 154 games44% · 174 games
TerrorbladeMikSa`
Terrorblade
Lich
LichSolo
53% · 74 games47% · 192 games
MuertaThiolicor
Muerta
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkjesv
53% · 239 games48% · 356 games
ClockwerkImmortalFaith
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 69%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2