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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UALEIKUMNIHAOloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techies
Antares · 39 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 36 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 20 games
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 20 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
65%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
63%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 19 games
63%

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Shergarat · 13 games
62%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 11 games
82%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Shergarat · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Mary_y · 9 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mary_y · 8 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
Shergarat · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palantimos · 8 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Palantimos · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
747 picks · 606 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 471 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
421 picks · 1014 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
405 picks · 376 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 956 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
392 picks · 630 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
388 picks · 603 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
381 picks · 204 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 72%
Hero pool strength52% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:5
9Pandas 72%UALEIKUMNIHAO 28%
The model gave 72% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 17:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistRAMZES666
64% · 102 games54% · 121 game
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Ember Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painkiyotaka
50% · 144 games49% · 131 game
BatriderShergarat
Batrider
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMieRo
47% · 62 games57% · 16 games
SpectrePalantimos
Spectre
Techies
TechiesAntares
49% · 132 games43% · 206 games
RubickMary_y
Rubick
Lich
LichSolo
48% · 67 games45% · 33 games
Bounty Hunterb1kA
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction missed8:26
9Pandas 72%UALEIKUMNIHAO 28%
The model gave 72% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 23:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painkiyotaka
54% · 34 games54% · 40 games
LifestealerPalantimos
Lifestealer
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidRAMZES666
50% · 46 games59% · 26 games
ViperShergarat
Viper
Axe
AxeMieRo
46% · 7 games47% · 71 game
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
Storm Spirit
Techies
TechiesAntares
57% · 46 games40% · 25 games
Bounty Hunterb1kA
Bounty Hunter
Jakiro
JakiroSolo
47% · 52 games40% · 23 games
PugnaMary_y
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct37:13
9Pandas 70%UALEIKUMNIHAO 30%
The model gave 70% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 34:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerkiyotaka
45% · 109 games48% · 151 game
TerrorbladePalantimos
Terrorblade
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRAMZES666
52% · 124 games50% · 360 games
TinyChira JUNIOR
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMieRo
44% · 382 games56% · 151 game
EnigmaShergarat
Enigma
Techies
TechiesAntares
62% · 105 games53% · 36 games
Bounty Hunterb1kA
Bounty Hunter
Lich
LichSolo
49% · 70 games44% · 92 games
Skywrath MageMary_y
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 85%
Series result9Pandas 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3