Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
9Pandas
Techies
Antares · 39 games
Rubick
Antares · 36 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
Disruptor
Solo · 20 games
Doomsignature
MieRo · 20 games
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 19 games
UALEIKUMNIHAO
Death Prophetsignature
Shergarat · 13 games
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 11 games
Enigmasignature
Shergarat · 9 games
Rubick
Mary_y · 9 games
Disruptorsignature
Mary_y · 8 games
Doomsignature
Shergarat · 8 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palantimos · 8 games
Terrorbladesignature
Palantimos · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
747 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
549 picks · 471 bans
Beastmaster
421 picks · 1014 bans
Tiny
405 picks · 376 bans
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 956 bans
Doom
392 picks · 630 bans
Undying
388 picks · 603 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 72%
Hero pool strength52% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:5
9Pandas 72%UALEIKUMNIHAO 28%
The model gave 72% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 17:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistRAMZES666
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Queen of Painkiyotaka
BatriderShergarat
Spirit BreakerMieRo
SpectrePalantimos
TechiesAntares
RubickMary_y
LichSolo
Bounty Hunterb1kA
Game 2prediction missed8:26
9Pandas 72%UALEIKUMNIHAO 28%
The model gave 72% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 23:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Painkiyotaka
LifestealerPalantimos
Faceless VoidRAMZES666
ViperShergarat
AxeMieRo
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
TechiesAntares
Bounty Hunterb1kA
JakiroSolo
PugnaMary_y
Game 3prediction correct37:13
9Pandas 70%UALEIKUMNIHAO 30%
The model gave 70% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 34:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invokerkiyotaka
TerrorbladePalantimos
BloodseekerRAMZES666
TinyChira JUNIOR
BeastmasterMieRo
EnigmaShergarat
TechiesAntares
Bounty Hunterb1kA
LichSolo
Skywrath MageMary_y
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 85%
Series result9Pandas 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3