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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
B8 Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AS Monaco Gambit

No games played over 6 months.

B8 Esports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
20 picks · 23 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
18 picks · 45 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
16 picks · 44 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
15 picks · 22 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
14 picks · 11 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
12 picks · 24 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
11 picks · 0 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
11 picks · 14 bans
73%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% AS Monaco Gambit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% AS Monaco Gambit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:25
AS Monaco Gambit 51%B8 Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 1:12:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
little datalittle data
Arc WardenRdO
Arc Warden
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordxannii
little datalittle data
PuckDendi
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBlizzy
little datalittle data
Shadow Shaman5up
Shadow Shaman
Rubick
Rubickxsvampire
little datalittle data
DisruptorDuster
Disruptor
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAoharide
little data
Game 2prediction correct21:30
AS Monaco Gambit 48%B8 Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 46:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordxannii
little datalittle data
Wraith KingRdO
Wraith King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLorenof
little datalittle data
Ember SpiritDendi
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterBlizzy
little datalittle data
EnchantressDuster
Enchantress
Mirana
Miranaxsvampire
little datalittle data
Rubick5up
Rubick
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAoharide
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteAS Monaco Gambit · 50%
Series resultB8 Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2