AS Monaco Gambit vs B8 Esports — prediction DPC2S—ЗК 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

AS Monaco Gambitloss 0:2

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 0:2

B8 Esportswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AS Monaco Gambit

No games played over 6 months.

B8 Esports

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Void Spirit

20 picks · 23 bans

50%

Mars

18 picks · 45 bans

50%

Puck

16 picks · 44 bans

55%

Monkey King

15 picks · 22 bans

53%

Earth Spirit

14 picks · 11 bans

56%

Phoenix

12 picks · 24 bans

56%

Crystal Maiden

11 picks · 0 bans

47%

Ember Spirit

11 picks · 14 bans

73%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% AS Monaco Gambit

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% AS Monaco Gambit

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed41:25

AS Monaco Gambit 51%B8 Esports 49%

The model gave 51% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 1:12:35.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

Ember SpiritLorenof

little datalittle data

Arc WardenRdO