Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 12 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 10 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 10 games
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 9 games
Phantom Lancersignature
Watson · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Limitless · 7 games
Linaoften banned
[T]SA · 7 games
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 26 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 18 games
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
Abaddonsignature
VANSKOR · 10 games
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 10 games
Treant Protectorsignature
VANSKOR · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
381 picks · 169 bans
Hoodwink
351 picks · 127 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 518 bans
Dragon Knight
258 picks · 346 bans
Lina
251 picks · 411 bans
Luna
247 picks · 330 bans
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 243 bans
Puck
234 picks · 541 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Team Empire
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:19
B8 Esports 32%Team Empire 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 24:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenWatson
MedusaSmiling Knight
Void SpiritDendi
RazorLorenof
Night StalkerLimitless
TidehunterShachlo
Keeper of the Light[T]SA
Miranasayuw
57% · 20 games
BaneVANSKOR
Game 2prediction correct25:38
B8 Esports 36%Team Empire 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 48:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzWatson
SlarkSmiling Knight
Queen of PainDendi
WindrangerLorenof
ViperLimitless
BloodseekerShachlo
Earth Spirit[T]SA
Shadow Demonsayuw
56% · 41 game
DisruptorVANSKOR
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 78%
Series resultTeam Empire 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2