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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Empirewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 12 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 10 games
70%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 10 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 9 games
44%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancersignature
Watson · 8 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Limitless · 7 games
71%
Lina
Linaoften banned
[T]SA · 7 games
43%

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 26 games
65%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 18 games
61%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
VANSKOR · 10 games
80%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 10 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
VANSKOR · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
381 picks · 169 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
351 picks · 127 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 518 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
258 picks · 346 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
251 picks · 411 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
247 picks · 330 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 243 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
234 picks · 541 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Team Empire
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:19
B8 Esports 32%Team Empire 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 24:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenWatson
59% · 40 games45% · 55 games
MedusaSmiling Knight
Medusa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritDendi
42% · 166 games56% · 31 game
RazorLorenof
Razor
Night Stalker
Night StalkerLimitless
48% · 27 games50% · 101 game
TidehunterShachlo
Tidehunter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light[T]SA
45% · 69 games58% · 95 games
Miranasayuw
Mirana
57% · 20 games
BaneVANSKOR
Bane
Game 2prediction correct25:38
B8 Esports 36%Team Empire 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 48:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzWatson
50% · 25 games50% · 18 games
SlarkSmiling Knight
Slark
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDendi
52% · 25 games53% · 45 games
WindrangerLorenof
Windranger
Viper
ViperLimitless
51% · 58 games39% · 49 games
BloodseekerShachlo
Bloodseeker
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit[T]SA
49% · 84 games50% · 39 games
Shadow Demonsayuw
Shadow Demon
56% · 41 game
DisruptorVANSKOR
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 78%
Series resultTeam Empire 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2