PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Infinity Esports
Techies
Hyko · 12 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Gardick · 9 games
Brewmastersignature
Oscar · 8 games
Linaoften banned
Parker · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
409 picks · 346 bans
Hoodwink
406 picks · 446 bans
Weaver
385 picks · 826 bans
Tiny
376 picks · 872 bans
Phoenix
355 picks · 739 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 511 bans
Clockwerk
325 picks · 499 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 552 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total67% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:10
beastcoast 67%Infinity Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 34:34.
Game 2prediction missed31:18
beastcoast 67%Infinity Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 34:14.
Game 3prediction missed30:13
beastcoast 67%Infinity Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 33:00.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 67%
Series resultInfinity Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3