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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Infinity Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

Infinity Esports

Techies
Techies
Hyko · 12 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Gardick · 9 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Oscar · 8 games
75%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Parker · 7 games
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 6 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
80%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
409 picks · 346 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
406 picks · 446 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
385 picks · 826 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
376 picks · 872 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
355 picks · 739 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 511 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
325 picks · 499 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 552 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total67% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:10
beastcoast 67%Infinity Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 34:34.
Game 2prediction missed31:18
beastcoast 67%Infinity Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 34:14.
Game 3prediction missed30:13
beastcoast 67%Infinity Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 33:00.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 67%
Series resultInfinity Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3