Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
Rubick
Save- · 19 games
Tiny
gpK~ · 17 games
Pugnasignature
Save- · 14 games
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 13 games
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
IVY
Mirana
Qupe · 19 games
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 17 games
Tiny
Qupe · 17 games
Snapfire
Qupe · 16 games
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 15 games
Tusk
Mo13ei · 15 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
jmn- · 13 games
Luna
pio65 · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
709 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
576 picks · 505 bans
Beastmaster
477 picks · 1166 bans
Doom
472 picks · 877 bans
Ember Spirit
425 picks · 1073 bans
Pangolier
407 picks · 863 bans
Mirana
398 picks · 216 bans
Enchantress
397 picks · 572 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 47%
Hero pool strength59% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:7
BETBOOM TEAM 66%IVY 34%
The model gave 66% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 33:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNightfall
BeastmasterMikSa`
Bounty HunterPure~
Void SpiritOtaker
Storm SpiritgpK~
Death ProphetMoonlight
Keeper of the LightSave-
Pugnarue
Spirit BreakerTORONTOTOKYO
Winter Wyvernjmn-
Game 2prediction correct34:12
BETBOOM TEAM 69%IVY 31%
The model gave 69% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 23:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerNightfall
DawnbreakerOtaker
TechiesPure~
SnapfireMikSa`
PangoliergpK~
WindrangerMoonlight
LichTORONTOTOKYO
Crystal Maidenjmn-
PudgeSave-
Spirit Breakerrue
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 80%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2