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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Save- · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
gpK~ · 16 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
69%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Save- · 13 games
69%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
gpK~ · 11 games
55%

One Move

Mirana
Mirana
Gilgir · 20 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Gilgir · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
Gilgir · 17 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
42%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 11 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
709 picks · 596 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 490 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
441 picks · 1081 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
429 picks · 756 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 1010 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 361 bans
53%
Mirana
Mirana
377 picks · 203 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
374 picks · 538 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head8 – 1
Model total74% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:18
BETBOOM TEAM 63%One Move 37%
The model gave 63% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 46:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightNightfall
54% · 51 game47% · 95 games
Queen of PainAinkrad
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangoliergpK~
47% · 162 games48% · 72 games
Spirit BreakerAfterLife
Spirit Breaker
Magnus
MagnusPure~
46% · 59 games50% · 81 game
LifestealerMunkushi~
Lifestealer
Enchantress
EnchantressSave-
50% · 114 games56% · 134 games
TechiesGilgir
Techies
Disruptor
DisruptorTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 119 games48% · 123 games
PhoenixPanto
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct26:12
BETBOOM TEAM 65%One Move 35%
The model gave 65% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautNightfall
49% · 56 games49% · 74 games
Naga SirenMunkushi~
Naga Siren
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
48% · 148 games42% · 247 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordPure~
56% · 85 games51% · 35 games
BrewmasterAfterLife
Brewmaster
Pugna
PugnaSave-
46% · 69 games58% · 94 games
TechiesGilgir
Techies
Disruptor
DisruptorTORONTOTOKYO
55% · 272 games45% · 180 games
UndyingPanto
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 74%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2