Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
Rubick
Save- · 19 games
Tiny
gpK~ · 16 games
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
Pugnasignature
Save- · 13 games
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
gpK~ · 11 games
One Move
Mirana
Gilgir · 20 games
Rubick
Gilgir · 17 games
Tiny
Gilgir · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 12 games
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 11 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
709 picks · 596 bans
Disruptor
551 picks · 490 bans
Beastmaster
441 picks · 1081 bans
Doom
429 picks · 756 bans
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 1010 bans
Tiny
378 picks · 361 bans
Mirana
377 picks · 203 bans
Enchantress
374 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head8 – 1
Model total74% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:18
BETBOOM TEAM 63%One Move 37%
The model gave 63% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 46:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightNightfall
Queen of PainAinkrad
PangoliergpK~
Spirit BreakerAfterLife
MagnusPure~
LifestealerMunkushi~
EnchantressSave-
TechiesGilgir
DisruptorTORONTOTOKYO
PhoenixPanto
Game 2prediction correct26:12
BETBOOM TEAM 65%One Move 35%
The model gave 65% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautNightfall
Naga SirenMunkushi~
Storm SpiritgpK~
Ember SpiritAinkrad
UnderlordPure~
BrewmasterAfterLife
PugnaSave-
TechiesGilgir
DisruptorTORONTOTOKYO
UndyingPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 74%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2