BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 9 games
Lion
Hyde · 8 games
Marssignature
Fbz · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 7 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hyde · 7 games
Abaddonsignature
Khezcute · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 6 games
Neon Esports
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 24 games
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 22 games
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 15 games
Tusk
PlayHard · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
386 picks · 1000 bans
Lion
384 picks · 213 bans
Mars
374 picks · 628 bans
Grimstroke
361 picks · 362 bans
Snapfire
322 picks · 184 bans
Tusk
292 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
290 picks · 201 bans
Death Prophet
279 picks · 613 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total65% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:35
BOOM Esports 42%Neon Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 47:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMikoto
LifestealerNatsumi
Wraith KingDreamocel
PuckYopaj
Dark SeerFbz
BroodmotherSkem
LionKhezcute
Ancient ApparitionJaunuel
Nyx AssassinHyde
ClockwerkPlayHard
Game 2prediction missed47:22
BOOM Esports 43%Neon Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMikoto
MagnusNatsumi
UrsaDreamocel
BroodmotherSkem
Dark SeerFbz
WindrangerYopaj
GrimstrokeKhezcute
LionPlayHard
Nyx AssassinHyde
TinyJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 65%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2