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BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 9 games
44%
Lion
Lion
Hyde · 8 games
38%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 8 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 7 games
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hyde · 7 games
43%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Khezcute · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 6 games
33%

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 24 games
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 22 games
68%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
61%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 15 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
PlayHard · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
79%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 1000 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
384 picks · 213 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
374 picks · 628 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
361 picks · 362 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
322 picks · 184 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
292 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
290 picks · 201 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
279 picks · 613 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total65% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:35
BOOM Esports 42%Neon Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 47:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMikoto
58% · 71 game50% · 58 games
LifestealerNatsumi
Lifestealer
Wraith King
Wraith KingDreamocel
58% · 122 games48% · 293 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFbz
46% · 43 games55% · 21 game
BroodmotherSkem
Broodmother
Lion
LionKhezcute
48% · 197 games48% · 97 games
Ancient ApparitionJaunuel
Ancient Apparition
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinHyde
49% · 143 games45% · 107 games
ClockwerkPlayHard
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed47:22
BOOM Esports 43%Neon Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMikoto
53% · 43 games52% · 39 games
MagnusNatsumi
Magnus
Ursa
UrsaDreamocel
49% · 54 games50% · 25 games
BroodmotherSkem
Broodmother
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFbz
44% · 36 games47% · 32 games
WindrangerYopaj
Windranger
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeKhezcute
46% · 141 game53% · 163 games
LionPlayHard
Lion
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinHyde
55% · 109 games48% · 124 games
TinyJaunuel
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 65%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2