Fantasy Gaming vs No Limits Gaming — prediction DPC2S2ЮАЗО · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

Fantasy Gamingloss 0:2

series probability

44%56%

probability at match start · final 0:2

NLNo Limits Gamingwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantasy Gaming

Drow Rangeroften banned

Arms · 1 game

Lifestealeroften banned

Arms · 1 game

Sniperoften banned

Arms · 1 game

Weaveroften banned

Arms · 1 game

No Limits Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

789 picks · 532 bans

51%

Tiny

560 picks · 400 bans

52%

Tusk

534 picks · 437 bans

49%

Treant Protector

530 picks · 575 bans

56%

Nature's Prophet

431 picks · 706 bans

56%

Death Prophet

401 picks · 784 bans

50%

Snapfire

401 picks · 296 bans

45%

Ember Spirit

367 picks · 830 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%

Hero pool strength57% No Limits Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total56% No Limits Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct20:46

Fantasy Gaming 49%No Limits Gaming 51%

The model gave 51% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by No Limits Gaming in 36:09.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo