Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NLNo Limits Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantasy Gaming
Drow Rangeroften banned
Arms · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Arms · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
Arms · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
Arms · 1 game
No Limits Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
789 picks · 532 bans
Tiny
560 picks · 400 bans
Tusk
534 picks · 437 bans
Treant Protector
530 picks · 575 bans
Nature's Prophet
431 picks · 706 bans
Death Prophet
401 picks · 784 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 296 bans
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 830 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% No Limits Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% No Limits Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:46
Fantasy Gaming 49%No Limits Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by No Limits Gaming in 36:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenNada
Monkey KingJP
33% · 23 games
Shadow FiendAlone
45% · 34 games
Pangolierdrakesh1t
46% · 55 games
TinyZxca
46% · 9 games
GrimstrokeCHAAANNN
Game 2prediction correct36:53
Fantasy Gaming 47%No Limits Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by No Limits Gaming in 38:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritNada
AbaddonJP
57% · 70 games
Doomdrakesh1t
48% · 128 games
RubickAlone
58% · 62 games
Monkey KingZxca
59% · 70 games
Crystal MaidenCHAAANNN
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Limits Gaming · 56%
Series resultNo Limits Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2