PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 27 games
Batridersignature
tOfu · 18 games
Alchemistoften banned
dyrachyo · 17 games
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 17 games
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 16 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 13 games
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
BOOM Esports
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 23 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 15 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 13 games
Magnusoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 214 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 630 bans
Batrider
418 picks · 736 bans
Rubick
397 picks · 159 bans
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 555 bans
Gyrocopter
386 picks · 331 bans
Pangolier
369 picks · 746 bans
Mars
342 picks · 551 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:33
Gaimin Gladiators 64%BOOM Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassindyrachyo
MedusaPakazs
DoomQuinn
Centaur WarrunnerSacred
Dark SeerAce
PhoenixPanda
HoodwinktOfu
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Game 2prediction correct19:9
Gaimin Gladiators 64%BOOM Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 26:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperQuinn
SvenPakazs
BrewmasterAce
KunkkaSacred
Clinkzdyrachyo
MiranaPanda
ClockwerkSeleri
BanetOfu
Game 3prediction correct27:20
Gaimin Gladiators 67%BOOM Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 41:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristlebackdyrachyo
MorphlingPakazs
LeshracQuinn
Centaur WarrunnerSacred
SlardarAce
ClockwerkPanda
HoodwinktOfu
IoSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 76%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3