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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 27 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 18 games
78%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
dyrachyo · 17 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 16 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 13 games
77%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
54%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 23 games
52%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 15 games
80%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
29%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 13 games
62%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 214 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 630 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
418 picks · 736 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
397 picks · 159 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 555 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
386 picks · 331 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 746 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 551 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:33
Gaimin Gladiators 64%BOOM Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassindyrachyo
47% · 137 games46% · 174 games
MedusaPakazs
Medusa
Doom
DoomQuinn
49% · 191 game52% · 218 games
Centaur WarrunnerSacred
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAce
58% · 59 games47% · 155 games
PhoenixPanda
Phoenix
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
49% · 93 games
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSeleri
56% · 67 games
Game 2prediction correct19:9
Gaimin Gladiators 64%BOOM Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 26:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperQuinn
65% · 28 games50% · 96 games
SvenPakazs
Sven
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAce
42% · 116 games47% · 112 games
KunkkaSacred
Kunkka
Clinkz
Clinkzdyrachyo
56% · 15 games48% · 78 games
MiranaPanda
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSeleri
47% · 93 games
Bane
BanetOfu
56% · 34 games
Game 3prediction correct27:20
Gaimin Gladiators 67%BOOM Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 41:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebackdyrachyo
50% · 18 games50% · 95 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Leshrac
LeshracQuinn
53% · 79 games53% · 142 games
Centaur WarrunnerSacred
Centaur Warrunner
Slardar
SlardarAce
55% · 48 games42% · 66 games
ClockwerkPanda
Clockwerk
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
50% · 109 games
Io
IoSeleri
49% · 49 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 76%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3