IHC Esports vs Bruv123 — prediction PWS2ЗК · Dota 2

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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

IHC Esportsloss 0:2

series probability

43%57%

probability at match start · final 0:2

BBruv123win 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IHC Esports

Dark Willowoften banned

ace12 · 6 games

33%

Centaur Warrunneroften banned

eleven · 5 games

40%

Brewmasteroften banned

eleven · 4 games

50%

Gyrocopteroften banned

FortuneSoul · 4 games

25%

Marcioften banned

FortuneSoul · 4 games

50%

Rubick

ace12 · 4 games

25%

Timbersawoften banned

eleven · 4 games

25%

Grimstroke

Hishge · 3 games

33%

Bruv123

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

404 picks · 446 bans

53%

Rubick

401 picks · 339 bans

51%

Weaver

382 picks · 822 bans

54%

Tiny

376 picks · 872 bans

53%

Phoenix

356 picks · 732 bans

50%

Pangolier

330 picks · 510 bans

47%

Clockwerk

323 picks · 496 bans

56%

Dark Seer

293 picks · 673 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%

Hero pool strength53% Bruv123

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total57% Bruv123

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct12:28

IHC Esports 45%Bruv123 55%

The model gave 55% on Bruv123 — the game was taken by Bruv123 in 28:38.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo