PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BBruv123win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IHC Esports
Dark Willowoften banned
ace12 · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
eleven · 5 games
Brewmasteroften banned
eleven · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
Marcioften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
Rubick
ace12 · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
eleven · 4 games
Grimstroke
Hishge · 3 games
Bruv123
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
404 picks · 446 bans
Rubick
401 picks · 339 bans
Weaver
382 picks · 822 bans
Tiny
376 picks · 872 bans
Phoenix
356 picks · 732 bans
Pangolier
330 picks · 510 bans
Clockwerk
323 picks · 496 bans
Dark Seer
293 picks · 673 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Bruv123
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Bruv123
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:28
IHC Esports 45%Bruv123 55%
The model gave 55% on Bruv123 — the game was taken by Bruv123 in 28:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingFortuneSoul
SvenPalos
Axeeleven
Beastmasterseimei
ClockwerkHishge
Ember SpiritBob
Jakiroace12
ChenSe
Game 2prediction correct12:33
IHC Esports 47%Bruv123 53%
The model gave 53% on Bruv123 — the game was taken by Bruv123 in 28:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciFortuneSoul
Troll WarlordPalos
Brewmastereleven
Pangolierseimei
Ioace12
Ember SpiritBob
JakiroHishge
BatriderSe
Model check result
Model favoriteBruv123 · 57%
Series resultBruv123 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2